21세기 일본의 대중국 견제정책의 원인 = The Cause of Japan’s China Balancing Policy in the 21st Century

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The rise of China was the greatest event in 20th century international politics, but the strengthening of naval power in the 21st century has dramatically changed the situation in the region. Especially for Japan, which pursues economic growth rather than security based on the natural obstacles of the sea, China’s naval forces cause Japan’s security problems, and Japan is also trying to balancing China through military expansion and alliance expansion.
The existing balance of threat theory or the security dilemma can explain the arms race or unstable relationship between the two countries, but it has limitations to adequately explain the cause of the present situation. Therefore, I sought to understand the mutual relations through the grand strategy that expresses abstractly the national interests that the great powers intend to pursue. In particular, that the relationship between countries seeking the same strategy in the same region is more unstable than in other regions.
After the defeat of Pacific War, Japan’s third Grand Strategy, the Yoshida Doctrine, characterized putting the issue of security and economy (Gun vs Butter) in charge of security to the United States and herself focus on economic growth. In addition, Japan is waste her times by the ‘lost decade’.
Now it is pursuing the Abe Doctrine (seapower strategy). At the same time, China is pursuing its maritime strategy for the great power. Therefore, since the relationship between China and Japan is pursuing the same strategy (seapower strategy) in the same region (Asia), the relationship between the two countries is logically estimated to be not only unstable but also worse.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

중국의 부상은 20세기 국제정치에서 가장 큰 사건이었지만, 21세기 중국의 해군력 강화는 역내 정세를 급격히 변화시키고 있다. 특히 바다라는 천연 장애물을 기반으로 안보보다는 경제성장을 추구한 일본에게 있어서, 중국의 해군력은 일본의 안보문제를 초래하기 때문에, 일본도 최근 군비증강과 동맹 확대를 통해서 중국을 견제하려고 하고 있다.
기존 위협균형이론이나, 안보 딜레마는 양 국가 간의 군비경쟁 혹은 불안정한 관계를 설명할 수는 있어도 현 상황의 원인을 적절하게 설명하는 데한계를 갖는다. 따라서 강대국들이 추구하고자 하는 최우선 국가이익을 추상적으로 표현한 대전략을 통해서, 상호 간의 관계를 알아보고자 한다. 특히 다른 지역 국가들보다 동일 지역에서 동일한 대전략을 추구하는 국가들의 관계가 불안정하다는 것을 추론하였다.
패전 이후 일본의 대전략인 요시다 독트린은 대전략에서 중요한 안보문제를 미국에게 담당하게 하고, 자신은 경제성장에 집중하는 특징을 갖는데, 탈냉전 이후 중국에서도 같은 행태를 볼 수 있다. 게다가 일본은 ‘잃어버린 십 년’ 동안 시간을 지체하다 이제야 아베독트린(해양세력)을 추구하고 있는데, 같은 시기 중국도 강대국화를 위해서 해양 전략을 추구하고 있다. 따라서 중국과 일본의 관계는 동일한 지역(아시아)에서 동일한 대전략(해양 전략)을 추구하고 있으므로, 양 국가 간 관계는 불안정할 뿐만 아니라, 더욱 악화될 것이라고 논리적으로 추정하였다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 内閣官房, "｢平和安全法制｣の概要: 我が国 及び 国際社会の平和 及び 安全のための 切れ目のない 体制の整備" 内閣官房 2015
• 2 김성걸, "최근 일본의 중국에 대한 안보인식 변화와 대응방향: 2015년 방위백서 내용을 중심으로" 한국군사학회 83 : 97-120, 2015
• 3 원동욱, "중국의 지정학과 주변외교: ‘일대일로’를 중심으로" 현대중국학회 17 (17): 293-328, 2016
• 4 정미애, "안보법제의 문제점과 일본 국내적 함의" 한일군사문화학회 21 : 3-30, 2016
• 5 이동률, "시진핑 정부 ‘해양강국’ 구상의 지경제학적 접근과 지정학적 딜레마" 한국국제정치학회 57 (57): 369-403, 2017
• 6 防衛省防衛研究所, "東アジア戦略概観 2016" 防衛省防衛研究所 2016
• 7 入江昭, "日本の外交: 明治維新から現代まで" 中公新書 1966
• 8 防衛省, "新たな防衛大綱"
• 9 防衛省, "我が国の防衛と予算: 平成２８年度概算要求の概要"
• 10 国家安全保障会議, "平成２６年度以降に係る防衛計画の大綱について"
• 11 금희연, "[중국위협론]의 실체: 중국의 세계전략과 전방위외교정책" 아태지역연구센터 27 (27): 79-108, 2003
• 12 Gilpin, Robert, "War and Change in World Politics" Cambridge University Press 1983
• 13 Kotani, Tetsuo, "Twenty-First Century Seapower: Cooperation and Conflict at Sea" Routledge 2013
• 14 Holslag, Jonathan, "Trapped Giant: China’s Military Rise" International Institute for Strategic Studies 2010
• 15 Petersen, Alexandros, "The World Island: Eurasian Geopolitics and the Fate of the West" Praeger 2011
• 16 Rosecrance, Richard N, "The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World" Basic Books 1986
• 17 Walt, Stephen M, "The Origins of Alliances" Cornell University Press 1987
• 18 Cole, Bernard, "The Great Wall at Sea: China’s Navy in the Twenty-First Century" Naval Institute Press 2010
• 19 Gray, Colin S., "The Geopolitics of the Nuclear Era: Heartland, Rimlands, and the Technological Revolution" Crane, Russak &Company, Inc 1977
• 20 Lim, Robyn, "The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium" Routledge 2005
• 21 Ross, Robert S., "The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century" 23 (23): 81-118, 1999
• 22 Spykman, Nicholas J, "The Geography of the Peace" Archon Books 1944
• 23 Christensen, Thomas J., "The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power" W. W. Norton & Company 2015
• 24 Erickson, Andrew S., "The Budget This Time: Taking the Measure of China’s Defense Spending" 2 (2): 2014
• 25 Hughes, Christopher W., "Strategic Asia 2012-13:China’s Military Challenge" National Bureau of Asian Research 2012
• 26 Taliaferro, Jeffrey W., "Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited" 25 (25): 128-161, 2001
• 27 Samuels, Richard J, "Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia" Cornell University Press 2007
• 28 Goldstein, Avery, "Rising to the Challenge: China’s Grand Strategy and International Security" Stanford University Press 2005
• 29 Liff, Adam P., "Racing toward Tragedy?: China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma" 39 (39): 52-91, 2014
• 30 Hughes, Christopher W., "Power, Ideas, and Military Strategy" The National Bureau of Asian Research 73-105, 2017
• 31 Heginbotham, Eric, "Mercantile Realism and Japanese Foreign Policy" 22 (22): 171-203, 1998
• 32 Hughes, Christopher W., "Japan’s Remilitarisation" The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2009
• 33 Hughes, Christopher W., "Japan’s Re-emergence as a ‘Normal’ Military Power" Oxford University Press 2004
• 34 Koda, Yoji, "Japan’s Perceptions of and Interests in the South China Sea" 21 (21): 29-35, 2016
• 35 Auslin, Michael, "Japan’s New Realism: Abe Gets Tough" 95 (95): 125-134, 2016
• 36 Hughes, Christopher W., "Japan’s Foreign and Security Policy Under the ‘Abe Doctrine’: New Dynamism Or New Dead End?" Palgrave Macmillan 2015
• 37 Togo, Kazuhiko, "Japanese Strategic Thought toward Asia Strategic Thought in Northeast Asia" Palgrave Macmillan 2007
• 38 Yoshihara, Toshi, "Japanese Hard Power: Rising to the Challenge" American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research 2014
• 39 Blazevic, Jason, "Japan and the East China Sea: Realism, Policy and the Security Dilemma" 10 (10): 2010
• 40 Pyle, Kenneth B, "Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose" Public Affairs 2007
• 41 Dobson, Hugo, "Is Japan Really Back? The “Abe Doctrine” and Global Governance" 47 (47): 199-224, 2017
• 42 Herz, John H., "Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma" 2 (2): 157-180, 1950
• 43 Grygiel, Jakub J., "Great Powers and Geopolitical Change" Johns Hopkins University Press 2006
• 44 Simón, Luis, "Geopolitical Change, Grand Strategy and European Security:the EU-Nato Conundrum in Perspective" Palgrave Macmillan 2013
• 45 Liff, Adam P., "Demystifying China’s Defence Spending:Less Mysterious in the Aggregate" 216 : 805-830, 2013
• 46 Jervis, Robert, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma" 30 (30): 167-214, 1978
• 47 Holmes, James R., "Chinese naval strategy in the 21st century: the turn to Mahan" Routledge 2008
• 48 Ross, Robert S, "Chinese Security Policy: Structure, Power and Politics" Routledge 2009
• 49 Sutter, Robert G, "Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and Policy Since the Cold War" Rowman & Littlefield Publishers 2010
• 50 Nathan, Andrew J., "China’s Search For Security" Columbia University Press 2012
• 51 Sutter, Robert G, "China’s Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils" Rowman & Littlefield Publishers 2005
• 52 Ross, Robert S., "China’s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response" 34 (34): 46-81, 2009
• 53 Swaine, Michael D., "China’s Military & the US-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2013
• 54 Goldstein, Avery, "China’s Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics" Cornell University Press 2008
• 55 Feng, Zhu, "China’s Ascent: Power, Security, and The Future of International Politics" Cornell University Press 2008
• 56 Smith, Paul J., "China-Japan Relations and the Future Geopolitics of East Asia" 35 (35): 230-256, 2009
• 57 Holmes, James R., "China and the Commons: Angell or Mahan?" 168 (168): 172-191, 2006
• 58 Nina Silove, "Beyond the Buzzword: The Three Meanings of “Grand Strategy" 27 (27): 1-31, 2018
• 59 Ikenberry, G. John, "Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia" 131 (131): 2016
• 60 Schweller, Randall L., "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In" 19 (19): 72-107, 1994
• 61 Levy, Jack S., "Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally against the Leading Global Power?" 35 (35): 7-43, 2010
• 62 Ross, Robert S., "Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia" 15 (15): 355-395, 2006
• 63 Ross, Robert S., "Assessing the China Threat" (81) : 81-87, 2005