성선호 원인에 대한 한국과 자메이카의 비교연구

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글의 목적은 한국과 자메이카에 존재하는 성선호와 성선호의 원인으로 간주되고 있는 가문계승과 노후보장의 영향을 분석 연구하는 것이다. 한국과 자메이카의 세계출산력 조사를 분석 자료로, 그리고 다단계 위험률 모형을 분석통계 기법으로 사용하였다. 보편 위험률 모형과 비교할 때, 헥크만과 와커(Heckman & Walker, 1992)가 개발한 다단계 위험률 모형은 출발시점에서 비관찰된 개인별 이분산성(unobservable personspecific heterogeneity) 및 가임력에 관련된 변수 그리고 통제변수들을 통제함으로써 후기 출산순위에서의 추정치가 크게 어긋나는 것을 방지할 수 있다.
본 연구의 결과에 따르면 한국은 남아를 선호하고 자메이카는 여아를 선호하는 것으로 나타났다. 기존 자녀의 성구조 변수를 통해 남아선호를 직접적으로 나타낸 한국과는 달리, 자메이카의 여아선호는 자메이카의 모중심 친족제도(matrifocal kinship system)와 연결되어 있다.
성선호의 원인으로 간주되고 있는 가문계승과 노후보장 변수의 통계 분석 결과는 상이한 방향으로 나타났다. 성선호 이론이 가정하는 방향으로 나타난 가문계승변수와는 달리, 노후보장 변수들은 매우 다양한 방향으로 나타났다. 그것은 개인의 가문계승에 대한 개인의 차별적 기대는 가문계승에 대한 사회규범에 의해 지지되지만, 노후보장에 대한 개인의 차별적 기대는 사회적 차원의 노후보장과는 독립적으로 작동하기 때문이다. 가문계승이 노후보장보다 더 중요한 성선호 원인이라는 주장을 하기 전에, 가문계승과 노후보장의 긴밀한 관계가 연구 검토될 필요성을 이 연구는 제시하고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this article is to examine the gender preferences of Korea and Jamaica, and to analyze the effect of old age security and family lineage-which are regarded as the causes of gender preference-affecting gender preference. Multi-state-duration-models analyzing data from the World Fertility Survey are used to examine son preference in Korea and daughter preference in Jamaica. Compared with the conventional hazard model, the unobserved person-specific heterogeneity and the explanatory variables are controlled at the initial conditions and the person’s life history relating to fecundity is accounted for in the multi-state-duration-model suggested by Heckman and Walker(1992).
The evidences regarding Korea as a son preference country and Jamaica as a daughter preference country are suggested in this paper. However, unlike Korea where son preference is appeared directly through the gender composition of previous children, the daughter preference in Jamaica is represented indirectly through the Jamaican matrifocal family system.
The statistical results of family lineage and old age security are not appeared differently. The statistical result of family lineage is consistent of the assumption to which the theories of the cause of gender preference refer. However, the statistical results of old age security are not. Sometimes significant and positively, sometimes significant and negatively, and sometime insignificant. It is so confused. The reasons are following: The different individual expectations about family lineage are supported by the social norms about the family lineage, while those of old age security are independent of the social norm about old age security. In addition, before arguing that family lineage is more important cause of gender preference than old age security, we have to consider the closely connected relationship between family lineage and old age security.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 들어가는 말
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경
• Ⅲ. 자료와 통계 모형
• Ⅳ. 분석결과
• Ⅴ. 마치는 말
• 참고문헌
• ENGLISH ABSTRACTS

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