2018 미국 중간선거와 트럼프 행정부의 대북정책 = The 2018 US Midterm Election and President Trump’s Policy on North Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The US midterm elections have often served as a venue for evaluating incumbent president. The 2018 US Midterm was no exception. While the lower house had been colored blue, the Republicans barely secured its majority status in the upper house. This research aims to assess President Trump’s policy on North Korea on how it had affected the midterm and how the divided government has affected the US’ foreign policy on North Korea. The assessment is predicated upon foreign policy analysis and practices namely, international security environment, asymmetries of information, and executive dominance of the president on foreign policy. Put simply, the findings illustrate that North Korean factor neither had played a significant role in the midterm nor has been influenced by the outcome of the election. Yet, with a meaningful progress made in the denuclearization talk between the US and North Korea, the North Korean variable may become one of the most essential factors for President Trump in the upcoming presidential election in 2020.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 트럼프 정부의 대북정책과 2018 미국 중간선거의 상관관계를분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 트럼프 행정부 2년 차 시행된 2018 중간선거에서는 공화당이 상원의 다수당을 수성했고, 민주당이 하원의 다수당을 차지했다. 본 연구는 중간선거와 트럼프 행정부 대북정책의 상관관계를 관찰하여 북한 문제가 미국 국내정치에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석한다. 이에따라 첫째, 트럼프 행정부의 대북정책이 2018 미국 중간선거에 미친 영향, 둘째, 중간선거 이후 분점 정부가 미국의 대북정책 수립에 미친 영향을분석한다. 위 상관관계는 국제 안보환경, 정보의 비대칭성, 대통령의 제왕적 권위, 의회의 특성과 같은 외교정책론 기반의 분석을 중심으로 관찰할수 있다. 결과적으로 2018년도 중간선거에서 미국의 대북정책은 트럼프대통령과 관련된 다양한 국내외 이슈들로 인해 주요 요인으로 작용하지않았다. 그러나 본 연구는 향후 북미 비핵화 협상이 점진적인 발전양상을나타낸다면 트럼프 행정부의 대북정책이 미국 의회에 영향을 주는 동시에차기 미국 대선에서 트럼프 대통령 재선의 당락을 결정짓는 주요 요인으로 자리 잡을 수 있다는 점을 시사한다.

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