OECD 회원국의 글로벌가치사슬 참여도가 탄소배출에 미치는 비선형 영향 = The Nonlinear Impact of Global Value Chain Participation on Carbon Emissions in OECD Member Countries

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 2007년부터 2020년까지 경제협력개발기구 32개 국가의 GVC 참여도가 CO2 배출에 미치는 비선형 영향을 분석하는 것이다.
우선 본 논문에서는, 아시아개발은행-다지역투입산출표의 국가별 투입-산출 데이터와 WWZ의 방법론에 바탕을 두어 연구하였으며, 국가별 총수출 내역 및 메트랩 통계프로그램에 따라 쿠프만(2010)의측정식을 이용하여 국가별 글로벌가치사슬 참여지표를 산출하였다. 이후 핵심변수로 설정하여 다른통제변수들과 결합하여 스털팻 모형을 구축하였다. 하우스만 검정에 따르면 고정효과 방법이 더 적합한 것으로 나타났으며 뉴이-웨스트표준오차, 실행가능한-일반화최소자승법, 패널표준오차수정, 드리스콜–크레레이표준오차의 네 가지 회귀 방법을 사용하여 회귀 결과의 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 마지막으로2단계 최소제곱법 및 2단계-고정효과 방법을 사용하여 모형의 내생성 문제도 해결하였다.
회귀분석 결과 첫째, 경제협력개발기구 국가의 글로벌가치사슬 참여는 CO2 배출량과 역유자형 관계를 보인다. 글로벌가치사슬 참여 초기 단계에는 CO2 배출량이 증가하고 경제가 발전하며 에너지 소비가 증가한다. 이 단계를 지나면 글로벌가치사슬 참여가 증가하고 CO2 배출량은 점차 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 경제발전과 CO2 배출 간의 환경쿠즈네츠곡선 가설은 경제협력개발기구 국가에도 적용할 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 연구 결과에 따르면 경제협력개발기구 회원국의 인구수는 환경오염과 유의한 수준에서 긍정적인 상관관계가 있고, 재생에너지 소비와 외국인직접투자는 CO2 배출을 완화하는 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다.
국제무역과 환경오염에 관한 연구는 다양하게 이루어져 왔다. 하지만 글로벌가치사슬의 관점에서CO2 배출의 비선형적 관계를 다룬 연구는 아직 충분하지 않다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 이러한 점에착안하여 경제협력개발기구 회원국의 글로벌가치사슬 참여가 CO2 배출에 미치는 비선형 영향을 연구하고자 한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear impact of GVC participation on CO2 emissions in 32 OECD countries from 2007 to 2020. First, the study calculates country-specific GVC participation indicators based on the methodology of WWZ and Koopman's (2010) measurement formula, using country-specific input-output data from the Asian Development Bank Multi-Region Input-Output Tables, as well as total export data per country and the METLAB statistical program. These indicators are then set as the core variables and combined with other control variables to build a STIRPAT model. The Hausman test indicates that the fixed effects method is more appropriate, and the reliability of the regression results is verified using four regression methods: Newey-West standard errors, Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. Finally, the problem of endogeneity in the model is addressed using Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Two-Stage Fixed Effects methods.
The regression analysis reveals, first, that GVC participation in OECD countries exhibits an inverse U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions. In the early stages of GVC participation, CO2 emissions increase due to economic development and increased energy consumption. However, as GVC participation continues to rise, CO2 emissions gradually decrease. Second, the study confirms that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits that economic development initially leads to environmental degradation followed by subsequent improvements, is applicable to OECD countries. The results indicate that the population size in OECD countries is significantly and positively correlated with environmental pollution. Conversely, renewable energy consumption and foreign direct investment (FDI) have a mitigating effect on CO2 emissions.
Research on the relationship between international trade and environmental pollution is extensive. However, studies focusing on the nonlinear relationship from the perspective of GVC participation are insufficient. This paper aims to fill this gap by investigating the impact of GVC participation on CO2 emissions in OECD countries

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