한국의 미사일방어체계(MD) 구축 대안에 관한 연구 = (A) study on the strategy for MD system of Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The North Korean TBM is capable of ranging not only Korean peninsula but also Japan, Hawaii, and the west coast of the United States. The North Korean TBM can be equipped with chemical, biological, or nuclear warhead and cause disastrous impact. ROK government currently takes strategically ambiguous position in the area of Missile Defense(MD) system, which is the core of national security.
It is my intention to delve into MD system, especially in light of the ROKAF patriot missiles, the early warning RADAR procurement program, and the ROKN KDX-Ⅲ Destroyer program which is the foundation of Korean TBM defense system.
In this article, I included an overview of changes in Korean security environment, TBM threats, and defense capabilities in order to analyze Korean MD options. Possible MD options are 1) no MD efforts that is a kind of Non-Decision making, 2) participating in U.S. MD efforts, and 3) building independent MD program.
The first, option of no MD efforts could eliminate the risk of spending excessive budget of uncertain success of the program.
Also, there is little consensus among Korean people regarding MD. However, considering the fact that other nations are building MD system and the North Korean TBM threat is pending maintaining the status quo is just like taking a backward step.
Secondly, participating in U.S. MD efforts can bring about maximum MD effectiveness and enhancement of ROK-US alliance. On the other hand, it requires immense financial burden and may cause diplomatic tension with surrounding nations such as North Korea, China, and Russia.
Thirdly, building Korea's independent MD system requires significant cost while MD effectiveness is limited. Nonetheless, it can introduce defense capability against TBM without causing much friction with neighboring nations while displaying the defense capability against regional threats.
The rationale could be affected based on the situational variables between two Koreas. If North-South tension were to escalate, more emphasis should be placed on the effectiveness of MD than the cost of it, in which case participating in U.S. MD would be more attractive.
If the relation between two Koreas were to as always, that is neither two good nor two bad, it would be better for Korea to build its own MD system is that unnecessary conflicts could be avoided between neighboring nations.
If peace-mood be established between two Koreas, no MD efforts would be best of all, but two is the case we cannot expect.
The MD-related researches in Korea so far have been survey studies of the other nations' practices, mostly that of the United States. Such researches were limited to national security and military agencies. However, the future studies must take the form of drawing a concrete blueprint of Korean MD system, which took its first step along with introduction of Patriot missiles, Furthermore, the discussions must extend beyond the military circle that takes national security as the absolute priority and embrace systematic social-science-based researches that can contribute to national policy decisions and convincing the general populace.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구목적 1
• 제2절 연구방법 및 범위 6
• 1. 연구방법 6
• 2. 연구범위 7
• 제2장 안보환경 변화와 미사일 위협실태 8
• 제1절 MD 관련 동북아 안보환경 변화 8
• 1. 한반도 주변 작전환경 8
• 2. 미 MD의 발전 과정 및 추세 11
• 3. MD 관련 최근의 동북아 안보환경 16
• 제2절 한국의 미사일 위협과 방어능력 22
• 1. 탄도미사일의 군사적 특성과 발전경과 22
• 2. 북한의 미사일 위협 26
• 3. 주변국가의 미사일 위협 45
• 4. 한국군의 미사일 방어 실태 및 능력 48
• 5. 주변 국가의 미사일방어 추진현황 65
• 제3장 MD 대안과 연구분석의 틀 74
• 제1절 MD에 관한 연구 경향 74
• 1. 군사적 측면 74
• 2. 사회과학적 측면 75
• 3. MD 연구의 전망 75
• 제2절 비용효과분석에 입각한 MD 대안 도출 77
• 1. 비용효과분석 이론의 일반적 검토 77
• 2. 비용효과분석 모델에 비추어 본 한국의 MD 선택 81
• 제3절 연구분석의 틀 85
• 제4장 MD 대안별 비용효과 분석 87
• 제1절 MD 미구축 대안(현상유지)의 비용효과 87
• 1. MD 미구축 의의 87
• 2. MD 미구축시의 비용 87
• 3. MD 미구축시의 효과 90
• 제2절 미 MD 참여 대안의 비용효과 94
• 1. 미 MD에의 적극 참여 의의 94
• 2. 미 MD에의 적극 참여시 비용 94
• 3. 미 MD에의 적극 참여시 효과 96
• 제3절 독자적 MD 구축 대안의 비용효과 98
• 1. 독자적 MD 구축 의의 98
• 2. 독자적 MD 구축시 비용 99
• 3. 독자적 MD 구축시 효과 100
• 제5장 한국 MD 발전방향과 정책적 과제 103
• 제1절 대안별 비용효과분석 결과 종합 103
• 제2절 한국의 MD 발전방향 105
• 1. 공격작전 105
• 2. 적극방어 108
• 3. 소극방어 110
• 4. 지휘통제 111
• 제3절 MD 구축을 위한 정책적 과제 113
• 1. 국민적 공감대 형성 113
• 2. 우방국과의 협력 체제 구축 114
• 3. 위협감소를 위한 다양한 방책 강구 117
• 4. 응징보복 능력의 확보 118
• 5. 기반구조의 확충 120
• 6. 미사일방어체계의 단계적 확보 121
• 제6장 결론 123
• 참고문헌 126
• Abstract 130