東北亞小多邊主義對兩岸關係的影響：從地緣戰略角度分析 = The Impact of Northeast Asian Minilateralism on Cross-Strait Relations: A Geostrategic Perspective

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

本研究從地緣戰略視角，分析東北亞小多邊主義對兩岸關係的結構性影響。研究指出，隨著印太地區安全架構由傳統多邊主義逐漸轉向功能導向的小多邊合作，臺灣海峽問題已由 區域性爭議轉變為全球戰略競爭的重要議題。在此過程中，以韓、美、日三邊合作與晶片四方聯盟為代表的網狀安全架構，不僅強化了對中國的制度性制衡，也促進臺海問題進一 步納入更廣泛的安全與供應鏈合作網絡。然而，小多邊主義同時產生明顯的結構性悖論：其在提升合作效率與威懾能力的同時，也因加劇各方的安全疑慮而擴大區域安全困境，並 進一步加劇軍事與地緣經濟競爭。中國則透過經濟依存的武器化與制度性制裁加以回應，使兩岸關係逐漸嵌入更高層次的地緣政治對抗之中。研究認為，在技術主權與供應鏈安全 日益重要的背景下，臺灣雖憑藉半導體優勢提升其國際戰略地位，卻同時面臨「技術核心、政治邊緣」的結構性困境。未來兩岸關係的穩定，將取決於小多邊架構下安全與經濟 利益之間的動態平衡，以及各方對區域風險的管理能力。

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the structural impact of Northeast Asian minilateralism on cross-Strait relations from a geopolitical perspective. It argues that, as the Indo-Pacific security architecture gradually shifts from traditional multilateralism toward function-oriented minilateral cooperation, the Taiwan Strait issue has evolved from a regional dispute into a key issue in global strategic competition. In this process, networked security frameworks such as the ROK–U.S.–Japan trilateral cooperation and the Chip 4 Alliance have not only strengthened institutional balancing against China but also further incorporated the Taiwan Strait issue into broader security and supply chain networks. However, minilateralism simultaneously generates a clear structural paradox: while enhancing cooperation efficiency and deterrence capabilities, it also intensifies regional security dilemmas by increasing security concerns among regional actors, thereby exacerbating military and geoeconomic competition. China, in turn, has responded by weaponizing economic interdependence and imposing institutional sanctions, further embedding cross-Strait relations within a broader framework of geopolitical confrontation. As the importance of technological sovereignty and supply chain security grows, Taiwan has strengthened its international strategic position through its semiconductor advantages while simultaneously facing a structural dilemma: being “technologically central but politically peripheral.” The future stability of cross-Strait relations will depend on the dynamic balance between security and economic interests within the minilateral framework, as well as the capacity of relevant actors to manage regional risks.