中國에 投資한 韓國企業의 撤收 決定要因에 관한 實證分析 = Primary Determinants of Subsidiary Exit of Korean Manufacturing Firms in China : From the Organizational Ecology Perspective

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This research considers organizational ecology, strategic, and resource based factors in examining the rate of failure of overseas investment subsidiaries. In order to analyze the influence of the independent variables on the dependent variable of whether or not a business is liquidated, a binary logistics model with time varying covariates is used. Although in general survival analyses, a Cox model is used, this research uses the binary logistics model because it best shows the influence of time varying covariates. In constructing the research model, 4 broad classes of independent variables were used.
First, for organizational density factors, the numbers of foreign firms, Chinese firms, Korean firms by region or city, industry, and year, and the squares of their values divided by 1,000 are used. These variables all fall under the category of organizational ecology factors.
Second, subsidiary factors include timing of market entry, size of subsidiary, age of subsidiary, degree of diversification, investment experience, investment ratio, and entry mode. Among these subsidiary factors, subsidiary size and age are used as organizational ecology variables in order to understand the liability of smallness and the liability of newness. Other variables such as timing of market entry and entry mode are classified as strategic factors.
Third, variables that measure the resource base of the parent company include financial resource factors such as parent company assets, sales, debt ratios, and profitability, and intangible resources such as advertising intensity and R&D intensity.
The fourth class includes other control variables such as market size, level of manufacturing wages, and currency value in relation to the U.S. dollar by region or city and year. In particular, the analysis includes a control variable for 13 industries including textiles and clothing, leather and footwear, primary metals, nonmetallic minerals, transport and etc.
Among the 4 classes indicated above, all of the variables excluding subsidiary factors and 13 industries dummy are time varying covariates that vary over the life of the company.
The empirical researchs of subsidiary exit are divided into overall industry analyses, analyses that exclude Daewoo subsidiary companies, analyses that cover only main regions, analyses by type of industries, and analyses by type of liquidation. Analyses that exclude Daewoo subsidiaries and analyses that cover only main regions are used to evaluate the robustness of research results for overall industry. In particular, in 1999 and 2000, a large number of Daewoo subsidiary companies experienced partial sell off or liquidation, possibly distorting research results, so that studies that exclude these companies are included.
In the case of density factors, it was found that the density level of Korean firms was negatively related to the failure rate of Korean subsidiaries. This is because, the number of Korean firms in the same industry is increasing, the probability of survival for firms in that industry and region is rising. But the density of korean firms has a non monotonic effect. This means that, although at the outset agglomeration of Korean companies has a positive influence, after a certain period of time the density leads to increases in competition (for example, competition for limited resources), which raises the possibility of withdrawal from the market.
Furthermore, although in other industries the number of Korean companies has no influence on the survival of subsidiaries, it was confirmed that their existence created large networking externalities for other companies in the same industry.
Although the existence of foreign firms was found to have no influence on the survival of Korean firms, this is because the locations of agglomeration of foreign and Korean firms are different. In general, foreign firms, particularly American, Japanese, Taiwanese, and Singapore firms, focus their investments in Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai. On the other hand, Korean investment focuses on the geographically adjacent region, in particular Sandong, Tianjin, Liaoning, and Heilong Jiang.
In the case of density of Chinese firms, in all models it is found that this has no effect. Chinese firms, even today, are behind Korean firms in terms of technical know-how and management practices, and so their existence has no impact on the survival of Korean firms.
Among subsidiary factors, as age increases, the probability of exit also increases, leading to the selection of a hypothesis concerning the liability of aging. In particular, it was found that there is a nonlinear relationship between age and subsidiary exit.
With regards to type of investment, it was found that the probability of exit is lower for joint venture investments than for independent investments. The reasons for this are, first, the relative ease of withdrawing independent investments. When a company is not satisfied with activity in the Chinese market, in the case of a sole investment it is much easier to withdraw that investment than is the case for joint ventures or partnerships, which face all kinds of systematic barriers to withdrawal. Second, joint ventures are a way to learn about the market.
Regarding investment experience, as prior investment experience increases, the probability of exit declines, which confirms the importance of experience and learning.
In the case of strategic diversification factor, the probability of survival was much higher for firms that enter a market in related areas rather than unrelated areas. In particular, when a parent company enters an industry that differs from its core competencies in a new market with which it has low familiarity, risk rises precipitously, with the result that the probability of business failure in existing markets also increases. Because of this, when a parent company considers entering a foreign market, it should chose an industry with high relation to its primary activities.
With regards to market entry timing, it was found that the probability of failure for late-coming firms is much higher than that for early entrants, a result that is statistically significant. This confirms existing research that indicates that early firms tend to maintain a predominant position more than late firms.
In relation to the resource base of the parent company, it was found that as liquidity ratios increase, and debt ratios decrease, the probability of survival of subsidiaries increases. Furthermore, parent company size, as indicated by asset base, had a negative effect.
Return on assets had a positive effect. However, in analyses excluding Daewoo, return on assets was found to have a negative effect. Parent company intangible asset, as measured by advertising and R&D intensity, was found to have a negative effect, but it was non significant. According to existing research, intangible assets have a positive influence on market entrance decisions. However, it can be said that results show they have no effect on exit decisions.
With regard to other control variables, market size, as measured by per capita GDP, had no effect, but it was found that level of manufacturing wages had a significant positive relationship. More specifically, it was not significant for capital intensive industries, but was strongly positive for labor intensive industries. For macroeconomic factors as measured by foreign exchange rate compared to the U.S. dollar, no relationship was found with subsidiary exit.
Several implications can be made based on this research result. First, the importance of parent company resources. The importance of parent company resources when entering an overseas market has already been confirmed by many studies. However, the relationship between parent company resources and subsidiary exit is not yet clear. The results of the present study indicate that the financial resources of the parent company have an effect on withdrawal of subsidiaries, so that the rate of withdrawal of subsidiaries of companies with good financial resource flows is very low. This is because good financial resource flows create organizational slack, which in turn strengthen its commitment to the subsidiary. If an overseas investment subsidiary requires some time to build a safe activity base in a targeted national market, during this time the security of its resources is important, but the level of resources of the parent company is more important.
Second, when entering a market, investing by enjoying the network externalities that arise from the prior entrants is important. According to the results of the current study, the more firms in the same industry and the more investment experience compared to other firms, the lower the rate of exit. Securing ties with companies in the same industry is thus important. Entering through investment ties includes joint investments with independent companies with which you have domestic trade relationships, joint investment with affiliates, and investing in an industry in which the firm already has experience and resources.
Regarding investment location selection, it is necessary to have a strategy of investing in areas where mutual network externalities among domestic investors already exists. The general investment pattern of Korean firms has focused on cultural and geographical linkages. However, now more focus should be placed on forming investment and functional linkages.
In more detail, small and medium enterprises that have not sufficiently internationalized have the tendency to make investment location decisions based on geographical adjacency and cultural similarity. However, while these factors may be helpful in reducing the psychological burden at the outset of investment, it has been shown that these do not greatly affect competitiveness. The rate of bankruptcies in areas where Korean companies have focused their investments, such as Tianjin, Sandong, and Liaoning, have been low, but this is because the concentration of investment by domestic firms in similar industries has spurred mutual exchanges of information and other ways to positive mitigate adverse conditions.
This applies equally to product introductions. The product line of a new subsidiary may differ from that of the parent company. The weaker the relationship between product lines, the higher the uncertainy (Caves, 1982).
When the same product line is expanded into overseas markets, the opportunities for the subsidiary to apply and utilize the various skills and intangible assets of the parent company are greatly magnified. When expanding the same product line to overseas markets, the internal network between parent company and subsidiary tends to grow stronger, and to that degree the likelihood of failure in the overseas market is reduced.
With regards to method of market penetration, there still exists market uncertainty concerning China. Entering through joint ventures with existing firms has a much lower probability of failure than independent investments. It is understandable that in a joint venture, the experience of the local partner regarding the local market can be exploited. Firms entering the Chinese market through a joint venture can avoid undue risks and industry-specific problems caused by lack of market knowledge.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• = i
• 목차 = i
• Ⅰ. 서문 = 1
• 1.1 연구의 배경 = 1
• 1.2 연구 목적 = 2
• 1.3 기존연구와의 차별성 = 5
• 1.4 연구의 구성 = 7
• Ⅱ. 문헌 연구 = 8
• 2.1 생존과 철수의 정의 = 8
• 2.1.1 철수에 관한 관점 비교 = 8
• 2.1.2 해외투자 철수에 관한 실증연구 = 11
• 2.2 조직사멸에 관한 이론 검토 : 조직생태학 관점 = 14
• 2.2.1 조직생태학 관점 개관 = 14
• 2.2.2 조직생태학의 이론적 틀 = 17
• 2.2.2.1 조직군 내적 제약요인 = 18
• 2.2.2.2 조직군 외적 제약요인 = 20
• 2.2.3 조직생태학 관점에서 본 조직사멸 요인 = 22
• 2.2.3.1 신생기업의 불리성 = 22
• 2.2.3.2 성장기의 불리성 = 25
• 2.2.3.3 성숙기의 불리성 = 26
• 2.2.3.4 소규모조직의 불리성 = 28
• 2.2.3.5 설립시 조건 = 30
• 2.3 해외투자기업의 생존과 철수에 관한 실증연구 = 32
• 2.3.1 경험과 학습 = 32
• 2.3.2 외국인비용 = 35
• 2.3.2.1 현지기업과 외국기업간 퇴출률 차이 = 37
• 2.3.2.2 해외 자회사간 퇴출률 차이 = 38
• 2.4 기존 연구 요약 및 한계점 = 40
• Ⅲ. 해외투자 자회사의 철수 결정요인 분석 = 43
• 3.1 이론적 배경 = 43
• 3.1.1 전략적 선택 이론(Strategic choice theory) = 43
• 3.1.2 조직생태학 이론(Organizational ecology thory) = 45
• 3.1.3 자원기반 이론(Resource base theory) = 50
• 3.2 가설 설정 = 53
• 3.2.1 전략적 요인과 자회사 철수 = 53
• 3.2.1.1 진입방식(Entry mode) = 53
• 3.2.1.2 진출시점(Entry timing) = 56
• 3.2.1.3 투자품목(Diversification strategy) = 60
• 3.2.2 조직생태 요인과 자회사 철수 = 63
• 3.2.2.1 연령의존성(Age dependencce) = 63
• 3.2.2.1.1 자회사의 연령 = 63
• 3.2.2.1.2 선행투자(Prior entries) = 66
• 3.2.2.2 규모의존성(Size dependence) = 67
• 3.2.2.3 밀도의존성(Density dependence) = 69
• 3.2.2.3.1 정당성과 경쟁 = 69
• 3.2.2.3.2 국지적 경쟁과 네트워크 외부성 = 72
• 3.2.3 모기업 자원 기반 = 76
• 3.2.4 자회사 철수 유형 (부분매각 vs 완전 청산) = 77
• Ⅳ. 한국기업의 對중국 투자 및 철수 동향 = 79
• 4.1 對중국 투자 및 철수 동향 = 79
• 4.1.1 對중국 투자 현황 = 79
• 4.1.2 시기별 구분 = 80
• 4.1.3 對중국 투자 특징 = 82
• 4.2 한국기업의 對중국 철수 동향 및 특징 = 88
• 4.2.1 청산현황 = 88
• 4.2.2 특징 분석 = 92
• 4.2.3 사업철수 원인 분석 = 96
• Ⅴ. 연구 디자인 및 연구방법론 = 102
• 5.1 연구방법론: Discrete time logit model = 102
• 5.2 자료 = 105
• 5.3 변수 정의 = 110
• 5.3.1 종속변수 = 110
• 5.3.2 독립변수 = 111
• 5.3.2.1 전략적 요인 = 111
• 5.3.2.1.1 진입방식 = 111
• 5.3.2.1.2 진출시점 = 111
• 5.3.2.1.3 투자품목 = 112
• 5.3.2.2 조직생태 요인 = 113
• 5.3.2.2.1 자회사 연령 = 113
• 5.3.2.2.2 선행투자 = 114
• 5.3.2.2.3 자회사규모(초기 투자규모) = 115
• 5.3.2.2.4 밀도의존성 = 116
• 5.3.2.3 모기업 자원요인 = 117
• 5.3.2.4 기타 요인 = 118
• Ⅵ. 실증 분석 = 122
• 6.1 기본통계 분석 결과 = 122
• 6.2 자회사 철수에 관한 실증 분석 결과 = 125
• 6.3 가설 검증 = 134
• 6.3.1 진입방식 = 134
• 6.3.2 진출시점 = 135
• 6.3.3 투자품목 = 137
• 6.3.4 자회사 연령 = 138
• 6.3.5 선행투자 = 144
• 6.3.6 투자규모 = 145
• 6.3.7 밀도의존성 = 147
• 6.3.8 모기업 자원 = 157
• 6.3.9 기타 요인 = 159
• 6.4 철수 유형별 결정요인 분석 = 161
• Ⅶ. 결론 및 토의 = 167
• 7.1 연구의 결론 = 167
• 7.2 연구의 기여도 = 175
• 7.3 연구의 시사점 = 176
• 7.4 연구의 한계 = 180
• 7.5 향후 연구방향 = 182
• 부록 외상투자기업 청산방법 = 201
• <참고문헌> = 211
• <국문 초록> = 238