내생성을 고려한 IT산업 해외투자의 수출ㆍ입에 대한 영향분석

국문 초록 (Abstract)

국내 IT산업에서 이루어진 해외투자의 수출 및 수입에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 1988년에서 2007년까지의 20년간 IT분야 해외투자 대상국 중 상위 25개국에 대한 패널자료를 구축하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 해외투자의 내생성을 고려하여 그 시차변수를 이용한 도구변수 추정을 시도하였다. 분석결과 해외투자는 수출과 수입 모두를 매개하는 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, IT제조업 분야와 통신서비스업 분야의 해외투자가 IT수출을 유발하고 있으며, IT제조업과 소프트웨어업 분야의 해외투자는 IT수입을 유발해 온 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 G7 국가와 다른 국가 간에 별다른 차이를 나타내고 있지 않다. 또한 IT 제품의 수출ㆍ입이 구매력 변화에 대해 일관되게 통계적으로 유의한 반응을 하는데 반해, 환율변화에 대해서는 수입액에 대한 부정적 영향만 일관되게 나타났다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the effects of outward foreign direct investments(OFDI) on the trade in the Korean IT industries, using the panel data of 25 countries for the period 1988~2007. To take the endogeneity of OFDI into consideration, it attempts instrumental variable estimation with the lagged variable of OFDI as an instrument. The estimation results show that an increase in the OFDI in the IT industries have encouraged both the exports and the imports of IT products. Especially, IT exports are stimulated by the OFDI from the IT manufacturing sector and the telecommunications and broadcasting service sector while IT imports are induced by OFDI from the IT manufacturing sector and the software sector. These effects are not statistically different between G7 and non G7 countries. In addition, both the exports and the imports of IT products are substantially affected by the changes in GDP variables while only the imports are coherently influenced by the changes in exchange rates.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 자료 및 변수
• Ⅲ. 추정모형
• Ⅳ. 추정결과
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 참고문헌
• 부록
• [Abstract]

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 서영경, "해외투자의 경제적 효과 분석" 한국은행 22-49, 2002
• 2 류재원, "한국 해외직접투자의 무역 및 생산효과" 국제경제학회 2 (2): 133-160, 1996
• 3 유병철, "다변량 공적분모형에 의한 해외직접투자와 수출의 관계분석" 한국경제연구학회 10 : 191-207, 2003
• 4 Blomstrom, Magnus, "US and Swedish Direct investment and Exports" 1987
• 5 Swedenborg, Birgitta, "The Multinational Operations of Swedish Firms: An Analysis of Determinants and Effects" Industriens Utredningsinstitut 1979
• 6 Lipsey, Robert E., "The Location and Characteristics of U.S Affiliates in Asia" 1999
• 7 Grubert, Harry, "Taxes, Tariffs, and Transfer Pricing in Multinational Corporate Decision Making" 73 (73): 285-293, 1991
• 8 Yongkul Won, "Panel Causality Analysis on FDI — Exports - Economic Growth Nexus in First and Second Generation ANIEs" 한국경제연구학회 9 (9): 237-267, 2008
• 9 Head, Keith, "Overseas Investment and Firm Exports" 9 (9): 108-122, 2001
• 10 Visser, H., "Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Is it a Good Thing?" Academic Publishers 343-358, 2006
• 11 Lipsey, Robert E., "Outward FDI and Home Country Exports: Japan, The United States, and Sweden" Stockholm School of Economics 2000
• 12 OECD, "Open Markets Matter: The Benefits of Trade and Investment Regulation" 1998
• 13 Swenson, Deborah L., "Multinationals and the Creation of Chinese Trade Linkages" 2007
• 14 Mundell, R., "International Trade and the Factor Mobility" 47 : 321-335, 1957
• 15 Blonigen, Bruce A., "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports: The Case of Japanese Auto Parts" 53 (53): 81-104, 2001
• 16 이광훈, "IT산업에서의 해외투자의 수출에 대한 영향" 한국경제통상학회 25 (25): 53-70, 2007
• 17 Lipsey, Robert E., "Home and Host Country Effects of FDI" 2002
• 18 Blömstrom, M., "Home Country Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Sweden" NBER 1995
• 19 Lipsey, R. E., "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms" 66 : 304-308, 1984
• 20 Lipsey, Robert E., "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries" 63 (63): 488-494,
• 21 Swenson, Deborah L., "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows" 12 (12): 609-629, 2004
• 22 Markusen, J. R., "Factor Movements a.nd Commodity Trade as Complements" 13 : 341-356, 1983
• 23 Zarotiadis, G., "FDI and Trade in the UK: Substitutes or Complements?" European Trade Study Group 2005
• 24 Svensson, R., "Effects of Overseas Production on Home Country Exports: Evidence Based on Swedish Multinationals" 132 (132): 304-329, 1996
• 25 Kim, S., "Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Performance: Evidence from Korea" Korea Development Institute 1998
• 26 Lim, S. H., "Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Exports: The Case of Korean Firms" 9 : 42-49, 2001
• 27 Clausing, Kimberly A, "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?" 38 (38): 190-205, 2000
• 28 Van Pottelsberghe, B., "Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology across Borders?" 83 : 490-497, 2001
• 29 Greenway, David, "Do Domestic Firms Learn to Export from Multinationals?" 20 : 1027-1043, 2004
• 30 Swedenborg, Birgitta, "Determinants and Effects of Multinational Growth: The Swedish Case Revisited" University of Chicago Press(NBER) 2001
• 31 이두원, "Casual Relation between Sino-Korea FDI and Export" 한국경제연구학회 8 (8): 377-395, 2007
• 32 Seo, J. S., "An Analysis of Home Country Trade Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment" 23 : 160-170, 2006