브렉시트 국민투표 이후 영국 경제의 변화: 거시경제지표를 중심으로 = Development of the UK Economy after the Brexit Referendum: Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study examines the macroeconomic development of the UK since the Brexit referendum held in June 2016. The UK economy had been showing a robust growth based on the strong domestic demand at the time of the Brexit referendum. During the Brexit negotiation, uncertainty surrounding Brexit may serve as a downside pressure on the British economy by affecting private consumption and investment.
The British sterling fell to record low level and continued to stay in low. This suggests that Brexit issues affect the UK economy even before implementing Brexit.
UK’s macroeconomic data shows that the UK economy may be entering in downturn phase, while the overall economy is still growing. In particular, the growth rate of private consumption, which led to economic growth in the past, has stagnated and investment has been declining. This can not be attributed solely to the Brexit uncertainty and results from other factors, such as a slower growth across Europe, uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade conflicts, and slowing economic growth in China. However, if the Brexit negotiations do not proceed smoothly, uncertainty is likely to increase and the downside effect is likely to be stronger.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구는 영국의 주요 거시지표를 살펴봄으로써 그동안 내수위주의 견조한 성장세를 유지해 온 영국 경제가 브렉시트 결정 이후 어떠한 변화를 겪고 있는지를 살펴보고자 하였다.
브렉시트 협상 기간 중 영국-EU 관계에는 아무런 변화가 없으나, 브렉시트를 둘러싼 불확실성은 민간소비와 투자에 영향을 줌으로써 영국 경제에 하방요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 또한브렉시트 결정 직후, 영국 파운드화의 가치가 폭락하였고, 현 시점까지 계속된 약세현상은브렉시트 결정만으로도 경제활동에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 보여준다. GDP 및 고용, 선행지수, 주택시장, 무역 관련 지표를 점검한 결과 영국의 경기는 완만한 경기하강의 징후를 보이고 있다. 특히 과거 경제성장을 주도했던 민간소비의 증가율이 하락하였고, 투자가 감소하고 있다. 이는 유럽 전역에 걸쳐 성장 움직임이 둔화되었고, 미중 간의 무역분쟁으로 인한대외불확실성의 증대, 중국경제의 둔화 등 여러 요인이 결합된 결과로 모든 원인을 브렉시트이슈로 돌릴 수는 없다. 그러나 브렉시트 협상이 원만하게 진행되지 않을 경우, 불확실성이증가하면서 경기하방 효과가 더 커질 가능성이 있다.

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