양안 외교경쟁에 대한 약소국 전략과 결정요인 -2000년대 이후 대만 수교국의 외교관계 선택을 중심으로- = Types and Determinants in Strategy of Small Nations on Cross -Strait Competition for Diplomatic recognition -Focus on the diplomatic relations established by Taiwan’s allies Since 2000-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Taiwan has only 14 diplomatic relations in the world. Although the majority of countries have accepted China's One China Policy and switched diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, there are still a few countries that maintain official diplomatic relations with Taiwan rather than China. Most of Taiwan's diplomatic partners are small nations, but these 14 countries serve as diplomatic allies representing Taiwan in the international society through diplomatic recognition of Taiwan as a ‘de facto’ nation.
This paper analyzed the types of diplomatic relations of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies from the perspective of foreign policy of small nations. The types of diplomatic Relations selected by Taiwan’s allies since 2000 could be divided into four as follows: 1)Balancing(maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan), 2)Balancing-hedging(establishing diplomatic ties with Taiwan after swinging between Taiwan and China), 3)Bandwagoning-hedging(choosing China after swinging between Taiwan and China), and 4)Bandwagoning(switching to China). As of 2022, there are 12 states, 2 states, 8 states, and 9 states by types, respectively. It can be seen that the tendency to bandwagon with China has become stronger since the 2000s.
To summarize the results of analyzing the determinants of each type, economic factors such as foreign aid and economic & technical support from China and Taiwan are one of the most important factors in establishing diplomatic relations in cross-strait competition. On the other hand, value factors, which share democratic political system and culture, and US factors have become more important determinants for nations that are highly dependent on the United States on economic and military security. Since 2000, value factors, US factors, and economic factors have significantly influenced the choice in taking the side for Taiwan’s allies. In particular, as China strategy for isolating Taiwan internationally has been aimed at countering US influence and strategic interests since the 2010s, cross-strait competition is expected to expand to strategic competition between the U.S. and China, and accordingly it is expected that US factors and value factors become more important.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2022년 현재 대만의 수교국은 14개국 밖에 남지 않았다. 대다수의 국가들이 중국의 ‘하나의중국’(One China Policy)’ 원칙을 수용하여 중국을 수교대상으로 선택했지만, 여전히 공식 외교관계의 대상으로 중국이 아닌 대만을 선택하고 있는 14개의 국가들이 있는 것이다. 14개의 대만 수교국들은 대부분 약소국이지만, 대만에 대한 외교적 승인(diplomatic recognition)을 통해국제사회에서 대만의 입장을 대변하는 외교동맹국의 역할을 하고 있다.
이 논문은 ‘약소국가의 외교정책’ 관점에서 대만 수교국들이 선택한 외교관계의 유형을 분석하였다. 2000년 이후 대만 수교국들이 선택한 외교관계의 유형은 대만과의 수교를 지속하는 1)현상유지형, 중국과 대만 사이에서 수교와 단교를 번복하다가 대만을 선택한 2)약소국-헤징형, 중국과 수교한 3)강대국-헤징형, 중국과 단번에 수교한 4)편승형으로 나뉜다. 현상유지형 12개국, 약소국-헤징형 2개국, 강대국-헤징형 8개국, 편승형 9개국으로, 2000년대 이후 중국에 편승하는 경향이 더 강하게 나타났다.
각 유형별 결정에 영향을 준 주요 요인은 양안의 외교경쟁 속에서 중국 및 대만정부가 제공하는 경제 및 기술 지원과 대외원조 등의 경제적 혜택이었다. 그 외에도 민주적 정치시스템과 문화를 공유하고 있는 가치동맹, 그리고 경제와 군사안보 면에서의 높은 대미 의존도 등이중요한 요인이었다. 2000년 이후 ‘하나의 중국’에서 그 ‘하나’를 선택하는 데는 경제적 요인과함께 가치 요인 및 미국 요인이 중요한 영향을 미친 것이다. 특히 2010년대 이후 중국의 대만고립화 전략이 ‘미국의 영향력 및 전략적 이익에 대한 대응’을 목표로 전개되면서 양안의 외교경쟁이 미중 전략경쟁으로 확장되고 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 강봉구, "편승과 균형: 21세기 세계정치와 러-미관계" 한국국제정치학회 45 (45): 263-286, 2005
• 2 문흥호, "중국의 대중남미정책과 중, 미관계" 30 (30): 2006
• 3 김석우, "생존과 원조: 대만 해외원조 정책 연구" 21세기정치학회 28 (28): 189-209, 2018
• 4 정헌주, "대만의 국제개발협력, 국제규범, 그리고 파트너십: 대만 정부와 NGO의 개발협력사업을 중심으로" 국가정책연구소 33 (33): 121-148, 2019
• 5 신종호, "강대국 경쟁과 관련국의 대응: 역사적 사례와 시사점" 통일연구원 2020
• 6 Global Americans., "Why Might Taiwan’s Allies in Latin America and the Caribbean Soon Look to China?"
• 7 South China Morning Post, "US recalls top diplomats after three Taipei allies in Latine America switch recognition to Beijing"
• 8 Pan, Zhongqi., "US Taiwan Policy of Strategic Ambiguity : a dilemma of deterrence" 12 (12): 2003
• 9 Congressional Research Service, "U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: Policy Issues for Congress"
• 10 Olsen, B. Richard, "The role of dollar diplomacy in China-Taïwan diplomatic competition in the Caribbean and Central America" School for International Studies-Simon Fraser University 2009
• 11 Walt, S. M, "The origins of alliance" Cornell University Press 1990
• 12 Van Fossen, Anthony., "The Struggle for Recognition : Diplomatic Competition between China and Taiwan in Oceania" 12 (12): 2007
• 13 Walt, S. M., "Testing theories of alliance formation : The case of Southwest Asia" 42 (42): 1988
• 14 South China Morning Post, "Taiwan’s last four Pacific allies pledge their loyalty after two nations switched to Beijing"
• 15 Critica, R., "Taiwan’s development aid to Latin America and the Caribbean and the One China policy" 7 : 2019
• 16 BBC News, "Taiwan: How China is poaching the island's diplomatic allies"
• 17 Mendelson Forman, Johanna, "Taiwan-China balancing act in Latin America" 51 (51): 2008
• 18 Lin, Teh-Chang, "Taiwan's Foreign Aid in Transition: From ODA to Civil Society Approaches" 18 (18): 2017
• 19 Financial Times, "Taiwan shifts gears as China poaches diplomatic allies"
• 20 Larus, Elizabeth Freund, "Taiwan and the International Community" Peter Lang 2008
• 21 Payne, Richard. J., "Taiwan and Africa : Taipei's Continuing Search for International Recognition" 36 (36): 2001
• 22 Nygren, Max, "Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska strategi: Balancing, bandwagoning eller hedging?"
• 23 Hsieh, C. Chiao, "Strategy for survival: The foreign policy and external relations of the Republic of China on Taiwan, 1949-79" Sherwood Press 1985
• 24 Boon, Hoo Tiang, "Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations" 96 (96): 2020
• 25 Rich, Timothy S., "Status for sale : Taiwan and the competition for diplomatic recognition" 45 (45): 2009
• 26 Wivel, A., "Small states and international security" Routledge 2014
• 27 Mora, Frank. O., "Sino-Latin American relations: sources and consequences, 1977–1997" 41 (41): 1999
• 28 Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf, "Should the United States Abandon Taiwan?" 34 (34): 2011
• 29 Li, He., "Rivalry between Taiwan and the PRC in Latin America" 10 (10): 2005
• 30 Paz, Gonzalo S., "Rising China's ‘offensive’ in Latin America and the US reaction" 30 (30): 2006
• 31 Lowy Institute, "Political blackmail in the Taiwan-China contest"
• 32 Nikkei Asia, "Palau maintains Taiwan ties despite Chinese pressure"
• 33 Global Americans, "Nicaragua’s Flip to China: What Dose It Mean for the Region?"
• 34 Gnedina, Elena., "Multi-Vector’Foreign Policies in Europe: Balancing, Bandwagoning or Bargaining?" 67 (67): 2015
• 35 Ismayilzada, Rugiyya, "Iran’s strategy against the containment policy of US: balancing, bandwagoning or bargaining?" 2019
• 36 Schroeder, Paul., "Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory" 19 (19): 1994
• 37 Lin, Bih-jaw, "Foreign Policy of the Republic of China on Taiwan: An Unorthodox Approach" Praeger 1990
• 38 Erickson, Daniel P., "Fletcher Forum of World Affairs" The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy 2007
• 39 Ellis, Robert Evan, "Chinese soft power in Latin America: A case study" NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON DC 2011
• 40 Bloomberg, "Chinese Billions Fail to Sway Taiwan’s Last Two Allies in Africa"
• 41 Dumbaugh, Kerry, "China’s growing interest in Latin America"
• 42 Lum, Thomas., "China’s assistance and government-sponsored investment activities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia"
• 43 Cerna, Michael., "China’s Growing Presence in Latin America : Implications for US and Chinese Presence in the Region" 10 (10): 2011
• 44 Waisová, Šárka., "China's strategy vis-à-vis Taiwan's diplomatic friends : Is Beijing using dollar diplomacy?" 13 (13): 2020
• 45 Norton, Michael, "China wooing Caribbean away from Taiwan"
• 46 Ellis, Robert Evan, "China in Latin America: the whats and wherefores. Vol. 46" Lynne Rienner Publishers 2009
• 47 Edström, H., "Between the eagle and the bear : Explaining the alignment strategies of the Nordic countries in the 21st century" 39 (39): 2020
• 48 Gunasekara, S. Nishanthi., "Bandwagoning, balancing, and small states : A case of Sri Lanka" 11 (11): 2015
• 49 Wang, T. Y., "Balancing, bandwagoning or hedging : Taiwan’s strategic choices in the era of a rising China" 73 (73): 2021
• 50 Walt, S. M., "Alliances in a Unipolar World" 61 (61): 2009
• 51 AidData, "AidData’s Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset, Version 2.0"
• 52 Watson, Cynthia, "Adios Taiwan, Hola Beijing-Taiwan's Relations with Latin America" 4 (4): 2004
• 53 Taiwan News, "3 diplomatic allies speak up for Taiwan at 77th UN General Assembly -Paraguay, Marshall Islands, Guatemala presidents back Taiwan's inclusion in UN"
• 54 Taiwan News, "12 UN ambassadors of Taiwan allies express concern about rising Chinese threat- Allies call for peaceful resolution of disputes"
• 55 홍완석, "'동'과 '서' 사이에서: 우크라이나의 대외전략" 극동문제연구소 26 (26): 163-198, 2010
• 56 신종호, ""대만문제와 중미관계"EAI 프로젝트 리포트" EAI 1-25, 2012