이스라엘의 핵개발 결정과 핵전략: 포위심성(siege mentality)의 적용 = Israel's Nuclear Development Decision and Nuclear Strategy: The Application of Siege Mentality

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article seeks to find the drive for Israel’s nuclear development decision and nuclear strategy, in siege mentality. Siege mentality refers to a collective psychological state in which the actors assume the international community's intentions and attitudes as always negative towards them. Siege mentality is composed of two negative emotions, fear and distrust. Meanwhile, states or groups seized by siege mentality believe they cannot and should not expect aid from outside because they have been abandoned by the international community. Israel experienced the Holocaust and Independence War. From these incidents, Israel formed a distrust of the international community and of sponsors, and also fear of threats from aggressive states. If Israel distrusts the very entities that were believed to secure its survival, while there is persisting fear of threats from aggressive states, then it would have had no choice but to decide nuclear weapons and adopt a unique nuclear strategy that would differentiate from other nuclear powers. The results of the study are also suggestive of studies on North Korea's nuclear weapons program. If we can systematically analyze the secretive nature of the North Korea’s siege mentality, it will also provide meaningful explanations for North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its nuclear strategy.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이스라엘에는 ‘국제사회의 의도나 행태가 자신에게 항상 부정적이라고 인식하는 집단적 심리상태’인 포위심성이 내재돼 있다. 포위심성은 국가가 생존 위기에 직면한 상황에서 국제사회가 무관심으로 일관하거나 오히려 자국에게 적대적인 행위를 취할 때 형성된다. 이스라엘의 포위심성은 생존을 위협하는 홀로코스트와 독립전쟁의 상황에서 국제사회가 보인 적대적이고 부정적인 행태로 인해 형성되었다. 포위심성에 사로잡힌 국가는 스스로가 국제사회에서 버림받았다고 여기기 때문에 생존의 위협에 직면해서도 외부의 지원을 기대할 수 없으며, 기대해서도 안 된다고 인식한다. 이스라엘이 자국의 생존을 위해 핵개발에 나선 것이나, 여타 핵보유국들과는 차별화되는 독특한 핵전략을 채택해 유지하는 것도 포위심성에서 비롯되었다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 북한 핵문제에 관한 연구에도 시사하는 바가 크다. 만일 북한에 내재된 포위심성의 인식체계를 체계적으로 분석해낼 수 있다면, 북한의 핵개발이나 핵전략을 규명하는데 있어서도 유의미한 설명력을 제공할 것이다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 최갑수, "홀로코스트, 기억의 정치, 유럽중심주의" 한국사회사학회 (70) : 103-147, 2006
• 2 이기택, "현대국제정치이론" 박영사 1997
• 3 김희상, "중동전쟁" 전황 1998
• 4 부승찬, "중국 최종병기 ‘核잠수함 선단’: 핵 보복 공격 능력 갖춘 진(晋)급 3~4척 올해 안에 실전 배치 가능성" (939) : 2014
• 5 마르틴 하이데거, "존재와 시간" 시간과 공간사 1989
• 6 허버트 허시, "제노사이드와 기억의 정치: 삶을 위한 죽음의 연구" 책세상 2009
• 7 황지환, "전망이론을 통해 본 북한의 핵 정책 변화: 제 1, 2차 북한 핵 위기의 분석" 한국국제정치학회 46 (46): 79-101, 2006
• 8 "이스라엘, 유엔 인권이사회와 관계 단절"
• 9 "오바마-네타냐후 ‘이란 핵협상’ 정면충돌"
• 10 은용수, "심리/인지적 연구와 국제관계학" 한국국제정치학회 53 (53): 79-111, 2013
• 11 Inbar, Efraim, "불량국가의 비핵화 방안" 세종연구소 2014
• 12 김용환, "리바이어던: 국가라는 이름의 괴물" 살림출판사 2005
• 13 "네타냐후 총리, 이란 핵협상은 ‘나쁜 협상’ 반대"
• 14 이일호, "강소국 이스라엘과 땅의 전쟁" 삼성경제연구소 2007
• 15 Cummings, Jonathan, "‘Muddling Through’ Hasbara: Israeli Government Communications Policy, 1966-1975" London School of Economics and Political Science 2012
• 16 Bar-Tal, Daniel, "Why Does Fear Override Hope in Societies Engulfed by Intractable Conflict, as It Does in the Israeli Society?" 22 (22): 2001
• 17 Sagan, Scott D., "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb" 21 (21): 1996
• 18 "Vital Statistics: Total Casualties, Arab-Israeli Conflict (1860-Present)"
• 19 Ben-Gurion, David, "Uniqueness and Singularity: Discussions on Israel’s Security (Hebrew)" Maarachot 1971
• 20 Kramer, Roderick M., "Trust and Distrust in Organizations: Emerging Perspectives, Enduring Questions" 50 : 1999
• 21 Ben-Gurion, David, "The Zionist Idea: A Historical Analysis and Reader" Doubleday 1959
• 22 Asahi Shimbun, "The Road to the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons" Asahi Shimbun 1999
• 23 Nili, Shmulik, "The Nuclear (and the) Holocaust: Israel, Iran, and the Shadows of Auschwitz" 4 (4): 2011
• 24 Maoz, Zeev, "The Mixed Blessing of Israel’s Nuclear Policy" 28 (28): 2003
• 25 IISS, "The Military Balance" Routledge 2014
• 26 IISS, "The Military Balance" Routledge 2012
• 27 McDermott, Rose, "The Feeling of Rationality: The Meaning of Neuroscientific Advances for Political Science" 2 (2): 2004
• 28 Konstan, David, "The Emotions of the Ancient Greeks: Studies in Aristotle and Classical Literature" University of Toronto Press 2006
• 29 Bi, Jianxiang, "The Culture of Self-Destruction: Pyongyang’s Struggle for Regime Survival" 28 (28): 2007
• 30 Green, Stephen J., "Taking Sides: America’s Secret Relations With Militant Israel" William Morrow & Co 1984
• 31 Harkavy, Robert, "Survival Imperatives" 23 (23): 1986
• 32 Kristensen, Hans M., "Status of World Nuclear Forces"
• 33 Bar-Tal, Daniel, "Siege Mentality in Israel" 1989
• 34 Bar-Tal, Daniel, "Siege Mentality"
• 35 "Shimon Peres speech at the Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes"
• 36 "Revealed: the secrets of Israel’s nuclear arsenal"
• 37 Arms Control Association, "Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance"
• 38 National Intelligence Estimate, "Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World Countries Other than the US and UK" NIE 1961
• 39 Global Security, "Nuclear Weapons Stockpile"
• 40 Narang, Vipin, "Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict" Princeton University Press 2014
• 41 Pajak, Roger F., "Nuclear Status and Policies of the Middle East Countries" 59 (59): 1983
• 42 Slantchev, Branislav L., "National Security Strategy: The Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1916-1978" University of California-San Diego 2009
• 43 Inbar, Efraim, "Mowing the Grass: Israel’s Strategy for Protracted Intractable Conflict" 37 (37): 2014
• 44 Cohen, Avner, "Most Favored Nation" 51 (51): 1995
• 45 U.S. Department of State, "Memorandum From the Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (Murphy) to the Under Secretary of State (Hoover)"
• 46 Joshi, Sharad, "Israel’s nuclear policy: A cost-benefit analysis" 23 (23): 2000
• 47 Cochran, Edwin S., "Israel’s nuclear history" 6 (6): 2000
• 48 Beres, Louis Rene, "Israel’s Uncertain Strategic Future" (Spring) : 2007
• 49 Hertz, Eli E., "Israel’s Major Wars: The Legal Aspects of Coming into Possession of the Territories"
• 50 Sherwood, Harriet, "Israel condemns Iran nuclear deal as ‘historic mistake’"
• 51 Beres, Louis Rene, "Israel and Samson: Biblical Lessons for Israeli Strategy in the Nuclear Age" 11 (11): 2005
• 52 "Israel Finally Terminates Its Relationship With The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)"
• 53 Krech, David, "Individual in society: A textbook in social psychology" McGraw-Hill Book 1962
• 54 Levy, Jack S., "Handbook of War Studies II" University of Michigan Press 2000
• 55 Kristensen, Hans M., "Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945-2013" 69 (69): 2013
• 56 IPFM, "Global Fissile Material Report 2013: Increasing Transparency of Nuclear Warhead and Fissile Material Stocks as a Step toward Disarmament" International Panel on Fissile Material 2013
• 57 NTI, "Country Profiles: Israel"
• 58 Inbar, Efraim, "Contours of Israel’s New Strategic Thinking" 111 (111): 1996
• 59 Bar-Tal, Daniel, "Beliefs about Negative Intentions of the World: A Study of the Israeli Siege Mentality" 13 (13): 1992
• 60 Gaouette, Nicole, "Behind Israel’s siege mentality: A string of diplomatic and physical attacks this month leaves Israelis feeling alone"
• 61 "Back to the Future: NPR Rewrites Israel’s War of Independence"
• 62 Pinkus, Binyamin, "Atomic Power to Israel’s Rescue: French-Israeli Nuclear Cooperation, 1949–1957" 7 (7): 2002
• 63 Wolf, Albert B., "After the Iran deal: Competing visions for Israel’s nuclear posture" 35 (35): 2016
• 64 Bar-Tal, Daniel, "A sense of self-perceived collective victimhood in intractable conflicts" 91 (91): 2009