한국형 산림인증제도 도입의 경제적 가치와 후생효과 분석 = Economic value and welfare effects analysis on the introduction of Korean forest certification system

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study was conducted as the result of realizing the necessity of Korean forest certification system(KFCS) which was considered as domestic forestry situation and reasonable certification cost by cognizing the problems on FSC certification in Korea. In this study, it was estimated the virtual values on the logo of KFCS targeting wood-pulp producers and paper consumers with one and one-half bounded contingent valuation method (OOHB CVM) and choice experiment (CE). When applying the estimated virtual values to the real Korean forest certification market, this study analyzed the effects of the paper market and welfare on the wood-pulp producers by equilibrium displacement model (EDM).
It was carried out the OOHB CVM survey of the wood-pulp producers' on the virtual value() on the logo of KFCS targeting sincere forest manager, forest successor and the owners of a mountain in the whole country. The results showed the wood-pulp producers' , and were each estimated 9,405 won/ton, 8,647 won/ton and 6,556 won/ton. The mean of turnbull distribution-free model was estimated 6,098 won/ton as a complement on the bias of parametric model.
The consumers' CE survey was conducted targeting 135 residents in Seoul who had purchased the copy paper. The consumers' on the logo of KFCS was estimated 2,406 won/box in conditional logit model(CLM) and 2,826 won/box in mixed logit model(MLM). These values were higher about 0.1 to 9.1％ than the other eco-labels. They were estimated 9,624 won/ton and 11,304 won/ton if they converted into the same unit(won/toon) of the wood-pulp producers' and their values showed higher than the maximum (9,405 won/ton) of the wood- pulp producers.
Also, it was applied the EDM for the 8 scenarios combined with the and to analyze the welfare effects for introducing KFCS. Based on the results of the supply-demand equilibrium exchanges on the paper market analyzed through the EDM, the welfare effects showed the maximum revenue (8,839,503 won/yr) in scenario 14 which was the highest benefits caused the consumers' . On the contrary, it showed the simulation results of scenario 1 which was the lowest benefit would be in the red as the annual revenue was -817,032 won. The mean of the total welfare changes was analyzed 4,023,381 won/yr and standard deviation was 3,294,296 won/yr.
The above results showed the estimated virtual values on the logo of KFCS were sufficient to offset the certification cost on the acreage of wood pulp(2,764㏊) in the real market. And the higher the consumers' , the welfare changes were larger under the same conditions.
This study is meaningful as the first attempt to seek the calculation on the reasonable certification cost. Because it was analyzed on the supply-demand equilibrium and welfare effects in the real wood-pulp market after applying the stake-holders' willingness to pay(accept) on the virtual Korean forest certification costs.
The benefits of forest certification appears indirectly and has a long-term characteristic. Thus it depends on the government's strong will for the SFM and protection on domestic forest products to make it successful the further forest certification policy.
Forest certification is the most basic means for keeping and managing forest healthy and sustainability. Consequently, it is expected the synergies by connecting among forest certification and carbon offset program, etc.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서 론 1
• 1. 연구배경 및 필요성 1
• 2. 연구사 3
• 2.1 산림인증제도의 시장기능에 관한 선행연구 3
• 2.2 가상가치평가에 관한 선행연구 5
• 3. 연구목적 8
• 4. 연구체계 8
• Ⅱ. 연구방법 10
• 1. 연구범위 10
• 2. 분석자료 11
• 3. 분석방법 12
• 3.1 1.5 양분선택형 CVM 12
• 3.2 Turnbull 분포무관모형 19
• 3.3 선택실험법 21
• 1) 확률효용모형 22
• 2) 조건부로짓모형과 혼합로짓모형 23
• 3) WTP 모형 24
• 3.4 균형대체모형 25
• 4. 설문설계 28
• 4.1 임목생산자 28
• 1) 설문대상 및 표본설계 28
• 2) 설문지 설계 30
• 4.2 소비자 32
• 1) 설문대상 및 표본설계 32
• 2) 설문지 설계 32
• Ⅲ. 결과 및 고찰 36
• 1. 자체 산림인증제도의 세계 동향 36
• 1.1 산림인증의 개요 36
• 1.2 국제 산림인증 프로그램 37
• 1.3 국가별 자체 산림인증 프로그램 39
• 1) 미국 39
• 2) 캐나다 42
• 3) 말레이시아 43
• 4) 일본 43
• 2. 자체 산림인증제도에 대한 국내 여건 46
• 2.1 국내 산림인증 현황 46
• 2.2 국내 자체 산림인증제도 도입에 대한 논의 동향 48
• 3. 한국형 산림인증제도에 대한 인식과 태도 49
• 3.1 임목생산자 49
• 3.2 소비자 54
• 4. 한국형 산림인증제도에 대한 가상가치 추정 58
• 4.1 임목생산자 58
• 1) 응답자의 사회․경제적 특성 58
• 2) 1.5 양분선택형 CVM 60
• 3) Turnbull 분포무관모형 62
• 4.2 소비자 64
• 1) 응답자의 사회․경제적 특성 64
• 2) 모형 추정 65
• 4.3 와 의 비교 68
• 5. 한국형 산림인증제도 도입에 따른 후생효과 분석 70
• 5.1 시뮬레이션 시나리오 70
• 1) 영향평가를 위한 파라미터 70
• 2) 시나리오 설정 71
• 5.2 시뮬레이션 분석결과 73
• Ⅳ. 결 론 77
• 참고문헌 81