不動産景氣가 不動産政策에 미치는 影響에 관한 實證的 硏究 : 住宅景氣와 住宅價格을 中心으로 = (An)empirical study about the real estate business' impact on real estate policy : focusing on the housing market and price

국문 초록 (Abstract)

영문초록 : An Empirical Study about the Real Estate Business' Impact on the Real Estate Policy- Focusing on the Housing Market and Price -Ahn, Jae Keum Department of Public Administration Graduate School, Konkuk UniversityReal estate policies in Korea are very closely aligned with changes in the real estate market. It therefore follows that a positive analysis of these fluctuations and the interactions of cause and effect that occur between the housing market and policies, as well as the way policies are carried out will provide meaning to the stability of the real estate market in Korea. The result of this research will contribute to its stabilization. According to these predictions the goals of this research are as follows. Firstly, I will define the characteristics of Korea's real estate market based upon how market participants behave, after analyzing Korea's housing business since 1965. Secondly, I will try to find the primary factors that have attributed to the stabilization of the real estate business by examining the causal nexus of the real estate business and the real estate policy as well as the floating system between the real estate business and the real estate policies that occur in the circulation process of real estate business. Thirdly, I will analyze the effectiveness of real estate policy in relation to the Korean real estate market, the market participants' behavior and the influential real estate policy factors of real estate business. I will then try to outline policy strategies that could stabilize the real estate market.For this research, in relation to the general market and the real estate market, I set the general economy as an independent variable and the real estate economy as a dependant variable. The relationship between the real estate economy and the real estate policy is fixed as cross correlation. General market variations include eleven variations including monetary supply, private money holdings, corporate bonds earning ratios, consumer prices index, the city laborer's average income, unemployment rate, and GDP. The real estate business cycle indicators include housing price index.It is necessary to analyze real estate policy numerically. To change real estate policy into numerical data, I set horizontal axis(X) as "direct versus indirect" and vertical axis(Y) as "voluntary versus mandatory." Afterwards, I fix four real estate policies. I distinguish between the various types of real estate policy by grouping them into the following four categories: Market Type, Service Type, Regulatory Type and Authoritative Type. In addition, four more types must be considered according to the impact they have on the real estate market and the individuals subject to the policies; those are the Suppressant Policy, Revitalization Policy, Demand Oriented Policy and Supply Oriented Policy. I then used the real estate policies based upon those eight types as dummy variables. I also used the following tests: Hodrick Prescott Filter, Granger-Sims Causality Test, Impulse Response Test of Var(Vector auto-regressive), and Variance-decomposition test and reached the final conclusions. Korea's real estate market fluctuates rapidly and dramatically. When the real estate market inflates it is overvalued, when it deflates the market values are reinforced. This tendency is more prevalent these days. Although it is generally known that production income fluctuation directly influences the real estate market, I found that production income fluctuation has a low correlation with changes in housing prices except with city laborer's average income. However, it is found that there is a very high correlation between housing prices and city laborer's average income, GDP and the consumer prices index. When housing prices increased and stabilized, the real estate policy became more regulatory and authoritative. However, most of the economically viable real estate policies have no correlation with the housing price. The result of the causal nexus analysis between housing price and real estate policy shows that housing prices effected a change in real estate policy rather than real estate policy effecting a change in housing price. This means that Korea's real estate policy is formulated to deal with the disadvantages of housing price changes. Most of the policies were implemented within six - nine months after the housing price changed. This shows that the policy committee reacted sensitively to the changes in housing price while considering the process of policy changes. There is a gap between the time when a real estate policy affects the real estate market and the time when a real estate policy is drafted and implemented. Therefore these reactive policies are limited in dealing with the fluctuating housing prices.Political implications are drawn based upon the research results. Increase of unrealistic housing prices should be avoided. Korea's real estate economy fluctuates rather rapidly and dramatically. When the real estate market inflates it is overvalued. When it deflates the market values are reinforced. This is explained by the analysis of the correlation between economic variables and housing prices and between housing prices and real estate policy. Since Regulatory and Authoritative real estate policies will have limited effects in stabilizing the real estate market, the policy committee should implement a more Market Type Policy and Service Type Policy. This is proven by city laborer's average income, GDP and consumer prices index. In the long run, there should be more housing supplies to eradicate the excess demand due to housing shortage, in order to stabilize the real estate market. Regarding "when to implement a policy," reactive policies are limited to effectively deal with the rapidly changing housing price. Therefore, we should predict housing price changes and be proactive to those changes. We should do our best to institute real estate economic indicators, to enable better prediction and projection