아세안 지역 내 탄소고착(carbon lock-in) 요인 분석과 담론적 전환 가능성 모색 = Examining Carbon Lock-in and the Possibility of Discursive Turning Points in Southeast Asia

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구의 목적은 동남아시아의 저탄소 에너지 전환과 탈석탄을 방해하는 탄소고착화의 주요 원인을 분석하고 고착상태에 균열을 가져올 수 있는 담론적 전환 가능성을 모색하는 것이다. 이 연구는 아세안 지역의 탄소고착화에 기여하는 네 가지 주요 요인을 첫째, 신생 석탄발전소의 높은 비중과 장기 전력구매계약, 둘째, 대동남아 해외석탄금융, 셋째, 기술적 해결책과 청정석탄기술에 대한 선호, 넷째, 석탄옹호담론의 생산으로 분석하였다. 또한 아세안 지역에서 탈석탄 에너지 전환으로 이어질 수 있는 담론적 전환 가능성을 살펴보고, 국제사회에서 탈석탄 담론이 확산되고 ADB 등 국제기구가 동남아 국가들의 석탄발전소 조기 폐쇄를 지원하고 있으나 석탄의 퇴출이 아닌 단계적 감축을 목표로 하고 있어 한계가 있다는 점을 지적하였다. 그러나 동남아 시민사회단체 네트워크인 ‘프로젝트 세와나’와 ‘메콩/아세안환경위크’의 경우 아세안 내 지배적인 성장주의 담론에 도전한다는 점에서 역내 대안 담론을 만들어갈 수 있는 가능성의 공간으로 주목해야 한다는 의견을 제시하였다. 이 연구는 담론적 요인을 추가하여 기술 및 인프라, 제도, 행태 측면에서 분석되어 온 기존의 탄소고착 논의를 보완하고 한국과 동남아 시민사회의 교류와 연대를 더욱 활성화하기 위한 공론의 장으로서 메콩/아세안환경위크를 소개한다는 점에서 의의를 갖는다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The objective of this study is to analyze the main causes of carbon lock-in that impede Southeast Asia’s transition to a low-carbon economy and coal phase-out. Additionally, it aims to identify discursive turning points that could break the lock-in. The study examines four main factors that contribute to carbon lock-in in Southeast Asia. These factors include the high percentage of newly constructed coal-fired power plants and long-term power purchase agreements, the prevalence of foreign coal financing in Southeast Asia, the preference for technological fixes and clean coal technologies, and the production of pro-coal discourse. It also examines the discursive turning points that could lead to a low-carbon energy transition in the ASEAN region. It notes that while there is a growing call in the international community to phase out coal and international organizations such as the ADB are supporting the early retirement of coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asian countries, there are limitations as they aim to phase down coal rather than phase out coal. However, it is suggested that ‘Project SEVANA South-East Asia’ and ‘Mekong-ASEAN Environmental Week (MAEW),’ a network of civil society organizations in Southeast Asia, could be potential spaces for creating alternative discourses in the region. These initiatives challenge the dominant growth-oriented discourse in ASEAN. This study is significant in that it adds a discourse analysis to the existing literature on carbon lock-in, which has been analyzed in terms of technology and infrastructure, institutions, and behavior. In addition, it introduces the MAEW as a public forum to further activate cooperation and solidarity between Korean and Southeast Asian civil society.

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