경주 지진이 아파트 거주층수 선호도에 미친 영향에 대한 연구 = A Study on Influence of Gyeongju Earthquake on Preference of Apartment Height

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2016년 9월 12일의 경주 지진은 우리나라에서 진도를 측정한 역사상 가장 진도가 높은 것으로 경주를 비롯한 인근 지역에 물적 피해를 주었고 우리나라가 지진 안전지대가 아니라는 공포감을 심어 주었다. 여기서는 경주 지진으로 아파트 시장이 아파트 고층에 거주하는 것에 대하여 과잉반응 했는지를 2016년 1월부터 2017년 12월까지의 경주, 울산 및 창원의 아파트 실거래가격 자료를 이용하여 지진 발생 전ㆍ후의 기간으로 구분하여 분석한다. 실증분석결과 경주와 창원은 지진 발생 전에는 거주층수의 회귀계수가 통계적으로 유의적인 양의 값을 보이다가, 지진 발생 후 3~6개월 동안의 분석기간에는 통계적으로 유의적이지 않았다가 이 기간 경과 후 통계적으로 유의적인 양의 회귀계수를 보여 원래의 상태를 회복하였다. 이것은 경주 지진 발생에 대하여 경주와 창원에서 과잉반응 하였다는 것을 나타낸다. 경주 지진 발생 2개월 전에 유사한 규모의 지진이 발생한 울산은 지진에 대한 경험이 있어 지진 발생 3개월 후에 아파트 거주층수 선호도에 아무런 영향을 미치지 않은 것으로 나타났다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The earthquake which took place in Gyeongju on September 12th, 2016 damaged some of the properties in this city and the area nearby and may have been recorded as the strongest ever in Korean history. More seriously, though, it caused most Koreans to be terrified with the idea that Korea is no more safe from earthquakes and that they may have their properties destroyed or lost all of sudden by natural disasters such as earthquakes they witnessed in Gyeongju area. From this perspective, this study focuses on examining how housing market represented as apartments, in particular, living on high floors in this research reacted to Gyeongju Earthquake with transaction price data of those in Gyeongju, Ulsan, and Changwon from January 2016 to December 2017. To do so, it distinguishes periods such as before the earthquake and after the quake and then compares the results of each period. The results of this empirical analysis include: The coefficients of living floor in both Gyeongju and Changwon before the quake show significantly positive signs, but insignificant for 3~6 months after the quake, still they recover the significantly positive sign after this period. This may imply that Gyeongju and Changwon might have overreacted to the quake. On the other hand, Ulsan which experienced a similar quake 2 months before Gyeongju Earthquake shows no significant impact of Gyeongju Earthquake on the preference of apartment height.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서 론 Ⅱ. 이론적 배경 Ⅲ. 연구 설계 Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과 Ⅴ. 결론

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