Keynesian 國際收支理論의 非現實性 : E.A. Kuska의 論議에 대한 反論과 MBOP와의 綜合 = On the Inadequacy of Keynesian Balance-of-Payments Theory

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper is primarily intended to present a simple synthesis of the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments Theory (KBOP) and Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory (MBOP) in the short run.
Despite several significant advances in recent years, it remains true that the BOP theory is much less fully understood. Perhaps the best illustration of this the fact that we can readily find three distinct, unreconciled approaches to the analysis of the BOP. Briefly the three are (1) the elasticities (relative prices) approach, (2) the absorption (income or Keynesian) approach, and (3) the monetary approach to BOPs.
In a recent paper, Edward Kuska delivers a sweeping indictment of Keynesian balance of payments theory: "…almost all of the models of the Keynesian balance-of-payments literature suffer from internal contradictions and deficiencies which make them unsuitable for balance-of-payments theory." His critique of Keymesian balance of payment theory is expressed in four propositions. But Kuska's analysis and his critiques about KBOP are correct, given his assumptions. This paper has shown BOP theorists should always pay careful attention to balance sheet constraints, budget constraints and Walras' Law, the literature which Kuska attacks is free of conceptual error on these grounds.
Some of the contrasts between monetary and Keynesian approaches to the BOPs may
be reconciled in the context of a more general model that embraces the essential
features of both.
A synthesis of the approaches in this paper was done by developing a simple general model in which (1) the MBOP and KBOP are fully consistent with one another, (2) monetary and Keynesian hypotheses based on more partial models may be handled as special cases. But the shortterm model presented in this paper ignores several aspects of economic structure and portfolio behavior that become of dominant importance as the period of analysis extends boyond the short run:
(1) The capital flow equation specifies that capital flows depend on levels of the interest rate. Longer-term modelling requires that due account be taken of the size, composition, and rates of growth of foreign and domestic portfolios.
(2) The longer-term consequences of net capital inflows include a growing stream of interest and dividends. To model these properly, the debt-service payments must be separately included in the current-account equation, and the impact of interest and dividend payments must be allowed, through their role as a compenent of net factor payments to foreigners, to create a growing excess of gross domestic product over gross national product.
(3) The short-term model paid no attention to the important role of expectations concerning prices, the rate of income, government spending, taxes, and other variables. A more complete analysis would have to incorporate these features within the modelling. Such an extension could then be applied to an analysis of a flexible exchange rate regime in which expectations play a vital role.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 問題의 提起
• Ⅱ. Keynesian 國際收支理論
• 1. 國際收支調整理論에 대한 세 가지 接近
• 1.1. 彈力性接近
• 1.2. 吸收接近
• 1.3. 貨幣的 接近
• 2. Keynesian 國際收支理論
• 2.1. 封鎖經濟下의 總需要-供給模型
• 2.2. 開放經濟下의 巨視模型
• 2.3. 國際收支均衡線
• Ⅲ. Keynesian 國際收支理論의 非現實性論義
• 1. KBOP의 非現實性에 대한 Kuska의 論義
• 1.1. 封鎖經濟下의 Hicksian IS-LM模型
• 1.2. 二國經濟下의 IS-LM模型
• 1.3. 二國經濟模型의 擴張
• 2. Kuska의 論義에 대한 批判
• 2.1. 二國經濟 IS-LM模型에서의 豫算制約
• 2.2. 資産市場의 均衡과 Walras法則
• Ⅳ. 貨幣的 接近과의 綜合
• 1. KBOP와 MBOP
• 2. 兩接近의 部分模型
• 2.1. KBOP模型
• 2.2. MBOP模型
• 3. 綜合模型의 導出
• Ⅴ. 綜合模型의 限界 및 結論