남중국해 중재판정과 미 항행의 자유 작전(FONOPs)의 관계 = Relationship Between the South China Sea Arbitration and U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (an arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) ruled in favor of the Philippines in maritime disputes in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. The ruling invalidated China's maritime claim to waters falling within the nine-dash line, which accounts for more than 85% of the South China Sea. This study examines the U.S. naval operations executed during the last seven months of President Barack Obama’s term and the four years of President Donald Trump’s term following the ruling to analyze the effect of the South China Sea Arbitration on the U.S. naval operations and predict the Biden administration's future South China Sea policy.
The most notable outcome of the South China Sea Arbitration was that the U.S. Navy conducted more frequent Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the waters. The U.S. Navy conducted FONOPs three times in 2016 during the last year of the Obama administration, four times in 2017 during the start of the Trump administration, six times in 2018, eight times in 2019, and ten times in 2020.
The FONOPs during the Trump administration specifically reflect an important ruling in the South China Sea Arbitration. During the Obama administration, the U.S. Navy refrained from sailing within 12 nautical miles from artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea (i.e., the territorial waters claimed by China). However, during the Trump administration, the U.S. conducted FONOPs in waters within 12 nautical miles from China’s artificial islands that the arbitral tribunal ruled were not Chinese territorial waters. The reason behind the different FONOPs strategies between the two presidencies is that the arbitral tribunal issued its judgment when President Barack Obama had only seven months left to the end of his term before his successor, Donald Trump, assumed presidency. The Trump administration had more time to carefully review the contents of the arbitration award than the Obama administration.
By July 2021, the U.S. Navy under the Biden administration had already conducted four FONOPs in the South China Sea. Britain, a maritime power and key U.S. ally, deployed its newest aircraft carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, to the sea in 2021 for joint naval exercises with the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands.
At the core of the power struggle between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea is the South China Sea Arbitration. The Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations all sought to keep the arbitral award in force and block China’s attempts to bring the South China Sea under its sphere of influence. The Obama administration, along with the Philippines, won a lawfare against China and launched naval operations called FONOPs (⇒ Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy). The number of naval operations in the South China Sea swelled during the Trump administration, and they were even conducted within the disputed territorial waters claimed by China (⇒ Indo-Pacific Strategy 1.0). On July 11, 2021, the Biden administration’s Secretary of State made remarks commemorating the fifth anniversary of the South China Sea arbitration award. In the future, the Biden administration is expected to not only increase the frequency of naval operations, but also strengthen solidarity with its allies and develop cutting-edge naval weapons technology (⇒ Indo-Pacific Strategy 2.0).

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