畜産飼料의 需要分析과 飼料原料用 穀物의 導入展望 : 特히 配合飼料를 中心으로 = A Demand Analysis of Livestock Feeds and Forecasts of Grain Imported for Feed Materials in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As economy develops rapidly in recent years, meat consumption has been increasing as well. In order to meet this increasing demand for meats by the consumers, livestock supply has been promoted and expanded, which in turn has induced an ever increasing import demand for the feed grains. It is a great burden to the economy in a sence that an enormous amount of foreign exchanges are being drained away each year in order to import the feed grains.
There have been few studies done in this topic in the past, however, even though this is creating a serious problem in the economy. In this study, accordingly, an analysis was done on feed demand and import demand for the feed grains used in assorted feeds. And, finally, future forecasts were performed in order to perceive the prospect in this area in the years to come.
Four feed demand functions were estimated in logarithms by the OLS method for beef cattles, milk cows, hogs and chicken. All of the equations were satisfactory in terms of expected signs, coefficients of determination and statistical significance. Own price elasticifies were proven to be very elastic except for the one of milk cows. Also, the demand for the assorted feeds were very sensitive to the livestock's price as expected.
As far as the import demand function for feed grains used in manufacturing assorted feeds is concerned, all of the included variables were turned out to be statistically significant. Especially, the non-economic trend variable turned out to be the most sensitive one in the model. The reason for this sensitive elasticity is thought to be due to the trend in economic growth among other things.
In order to forecast the future levels of feed grains to be imported, the import function was tested first in a validating process in terms of statistical measures and graphic standard. Then, based upon the scenarios, three modles were specified such as "Baseline" Model, Model I and Model II, and each model generated the forcast values up to 1991. All of these three models indicate that the import demand for the feed grains will increase continuously in the future as long as the current trends keep going on, and the imported amount will be somewhere between 7million-12million M/T in 1991. This implies the agricultural reproduction will be suppressed continuously in the future and the farmers' incentive to produce more grains will diminish. Then the living standards of a majority of farm population will be depressed.
Therefore, the future policy for the livestock industry in Korea must be readjusted according to the potential feed resources available and the economic situtation. Also, it is argued that new attention should be paid in this area and a new policy approach should be sought in order to turn the tide favorably.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 緖 論
• Ⅱ. 畜産物消費趨勢와 飼料原料用 穀物 導入現況
• 1. 畜産物의 消費趨勢
• 2. 飼料原料用 穀物導入의 實態
• Ⅲ. 理論的인 分析模型
• 1. 配合飼料의 需要函數
• 2. 飼料原料用 穀物導入函數
• Ⅳ. 分析模型에 의한 計測結果
• 1. 配合飼料 需要函數의 計測結果
• 2. 飼料原料用 穀物導入函數의 計測結果
• Ⅴ. 飼料原料用 穀物의 導入展望
• Ⅵ. 要約 및 結論
• 參考文獻