국제 비교를 통한 복권 판매액 결정요인 분석: OECD 국가를 중심으로 = An Analysis of Determinants of Lottery Sales through International Comparison: Focusing on OECD Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the determinants of lottery sales by applying the panel fixed effect model to data of 34 OECD countries from 2003 to 2021. The results reveal that the smaller the economy, the higher the per capita income, the higher the male population ratio, the lower the working-age population ratio, the lower the government budget deficit, and the larger the national debt, the greater the demand for lottery per capita. The income elasticity of lottery sales is estimated to be in the range of 2.38 to 2.61, indicating that lottery spending seems to be progressive. In regards to population aging, it is shown that the higher the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 or older and the larger the support ratio of the elderly population, the larger the lottery sales per capita. In order to develop the domestic lottery industry to the OECD level, it is necessary to improve the awareness of lottery’s desirable functions and ease regulations on lottery issuance and sales. It is desirable to advance lottery issuance, sales, distribution, and payment systems in response to the latest technological changes such as AI and automation, e-commerce, online and platforming, metaverse, and virtual currency.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본고는 OECD 34개국의 2003~2021년 자료에 패널고정효과 모형을 적용하여 복권 판매 결정요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 경제규모가 작을수록, 1인당 소득이 클수록, 남성인구 비율이 높을수록, 생산 가능인구 비율이 낮을수록, 정부재정이 적자이고 국가부채가 클수록 1인당 복권수요가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 복권 판매의 소득탄력성은 2.38~2.61로서 복권지출이 누진적인 것으로 나타났다. 고령화 관련, 65세 이상 노인인구 비율이 높을수록, 고령인구 부양비가 클수록 1인당 복권 판매액이 크게나타났다. 국내 복권산업은 규제중심 정책으로 인해 경제발전 단계에 비해 뒤처져 있는데, 이를 OECD 수준으로 발전시키기 위해서는 복권의 사회적 순기능에 대한 인식의 개선과 복권 발행과 판매에 대한 규제완화가 요망된다. AI, 전자상거래, 온라인·플랫폼화, 메타버스, 가상자산 등 최신 기술변화에 부응해 복권 발행, 판매, 유통, 지급 시스템을 선진화할 필요가 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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