한국 성범죄자 위험성 평가 도구 개발 및 타당도 연구 = Development of the Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale (KSORAS) and its Validity Evidences

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Unlike many other countries, for many years, Korea disregarded structured instruments for assessing the risk of criminal reoffence. However, this negative attitude now seems to be gradually changing. Thus, this study aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for measuring the risk of sexual recidivism of Korean sex offenders and examine the predictive validity of the risk assessment tool. In order to accomplishing this purpose, first, this study reviewed the various risk assessments of sex offenders and static and dynamic risk factors. Study 1 conducted the validity analysis of KSORAS(Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale) in comparison of Static-99, MnSOST-R and PCL-R. As a result, KSORAS was significantly correlated with Static-99, MnSOST-R and PCL-R. Then, ROC analysis was applied to produce a preliminary cutoff-score discriminating high and low risk groups and found score 13 to have the best discriminating power. Study 2 conducted as a follow-up prediction study by tracing recidivism. As a result, the score 14 had better discriminating power than the cutoff-score drawn from Study 1 to predict recidivism. Finally, it was discussed how to use this assessment tool in Korean criminal justice system.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

외국에서는 범죄의 재범위험성을 평가하는 도구의 개발과 사용이 매우 활발하게 이루어지고 있는 반면에 국내에서의 상황은 미비한 형편이었다. 그러나 국내에서도 이제는 위험성 평가에 대한 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구를 통해 국내 상황에 적합한 성범죄자 위험성 평가도구를 개발하고 그 타당도를 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우선 효과성이 검증된 외국의 위험성 평가도구를 소개하고, 성범죄자들의 정적인 위험요인과 역동적 위험요인이 무엇인지 살펴보았다. 연구 1에서는 본 연구에서 개발한 한국성범죄자위험성평가척도(KSORAS)와 Static-99, MnSOST-R, PCL-R과의 비교 분석과 변별 기준점을 산출하였다. 연구 1의 결과에 따르면, KSORAS는 다른 재범위험성 평가도구와 유의미한 상관관계를 보였고, 고위험군에 대한 변별력 있는 기준점은 13점인 것으로 확인되었다. 연구 2에서는 실제 출소자들의 재범 추적 연구를 통하여 연구 1에서 산출된 KSORAS의 변별 기준점이 제대로 기능하는지를 살펴보았다. 적합도검증과 ROC 분석 결과를 토대로 볼 때 실제 재범자들을 잘 예측하는 변별기준점은 13점이 아니라 14점인 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구들을 통해 검증된 결과들은 형사사법기관에서 피의자들에 대한 처우에 대한 의사결정을 내리는 데 정확한 판단의 근거로 사용될 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 평가도구의 위험성 변별을 가르는 기준점을 구하는 데 있어서 신중한 자세가 요구된다.

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