아태지역에서의 G2 체제: 미･중 협력과 갈등 가능성 평가 = G2 in the Asia Pacific Region: Assessing US-China Cooperation and Competition

국문 초록 (Abstract)

9･11 테러이후 반테러전쟁 수행을 위해 중동에 집중하던 미국은 2008년 금융위기를 거치면서 ‘상대적 쇠퇴’의 길을 걷게 되었다. 그 동안 중국은 동아시아 지역에서 대 아세안 접근, 지역주의 실행, 남중국해 영유권 심화 등을 통해 영향력을 확대해 나갔으며, 이는 2011년 미국의 아시아 재균형 전략을 통한 아시아 중시정책을 불러왔다. 아태지역에서 미･중간 경쟁이 치열한 양상으로 전개되자 중국은 신형대국관계를 내세워 미국의 공세를 누그러뜨리는 전략을 채택하여 미중관계를 협력 국면으로 진입시켰으나 중장기적으로 미･중간 국력 격차가 좁혀질 경우 갈등 국면이 재현될 가능성이 크다. 한국의 전략은 이러한 점을 고려할 때 시간이 많지 않으므로 대북정책을 비롯한 외교안보정책을 보다 적극적으로 펴 나갈 필요가 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The United States, after going through the preoccupation with the war on terror in the Middle East and suffering from the financial crisis, has begun to tread the path of "relative decline." For ten years after the September 11th terrorist attack, China was implementing a strategy to expand its influence in East Asia by approaching Southeast Asia, engineering the regional multilateralism, and reinforcing its sovereignty over the South China Sea. This invited the United States to shift its strategic focus to Asia in 2011 under the name of "rebalancing toward Asia." The U.S.-China relationship has thus entered a stage of fierce competition and China has put forward a strategic rhetoric, or "a new type of great power relationship" for the sake of mitigating U.S. assertiveness in this region. Now it appears the U.S.-China relationship is moving toward cooperation, but it is likely that conflict and confrontation will resurface as the gap of power between them narrows in the years to come. The Republic of Korea should take this time constraint into account in forging ahead with its national security strategy let alone North Korea policy.

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