한국의 여론과 정책 연계에 관한 탐색적 연구 = An Exploratory Study on the Opinion-Policy Link in South Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Discussions on the way representative democracy functions focus on the question of how often policy decisions are in agreement with the preferences of the mass public. However, there have been few attempts to answer this question in South Korea. The purpose of this exploratory study is to contribute to the development of empirical research on the opinion-policy link by investigating the association between public opinion and policy outcomes in South Korea. Using the results of the surveys conducted by the government of South Korea from 1995 through 2020, public opinion was compared with actual policy outcomes in terms of policy congruence and responsiveness. Overall, about two-thirds of the cases demonstrate that policy outcomes are consistent with majority opinion. While control of government, level of public support, and issue salience did not significantly affect the degree of policy congruence and policy responsiveness, there was some significant variation in congruence and responsiveness among policy areas. However, this provisional finding that the political system substantially produces policy outcomes that the public want requires further work, such as doing cross-validation, revealing its mechanism, and having an in-depth discussion on the normative ideal of democracy against which the level of policy representation can be assessed.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

정책 결정이 다수 대중의 여론에 어느 정도 부합하는지를 파악하는 것은 대의 민주주의의 작동에 관한 논의에서 핵심을 차지하지만, 한국에서는 아직 이에 관한 본격적인 연구가 이루어지지 않고 있다. 이 탐색적 연구는 한국의 여론과 정책 사이의 관계를 추적함으로써 여론-정책 연계에 관한 실증연구의 발전에 기여하는 것을 주요 목적으로 한다. 1995년부터 2020년까지 한국 정부가 수행한 여론조사를 기초로 여론에 대한 정부 정책의 일치성과 반응성을 살펴본 결과 전체 사례 가운데 대략 3분의 2에서 여론과 정책 사이의 일정한 조응 관계가 나타났다. 이러한 정책 일치성과 정책 반응성은 정부 구분, 여론 지지율, 그리고 이슈 주목도에 따라서는 통계적으로 뚜렷한 차이가 발견되지 않았지만, 정책 분야별로 살펴볼 때는 의미 있는 차이가 나타났다. 하지만 한국에서 대중의 선호가 정책 결과에 상당히 반영되는 것으로 나타나는 이러한 잠정적 발견은 교차타당도의 검증이나 그 메커니즘의 규명뿐만 아니라 정책 대표성의 수준을 평가할 수 있는 기준이 되는 민주주의의 규범적 이상에 관한 충분한 논의 또한 요청한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 장훈, "한국의 정치적 대표 : 유권자-국회의원의 이념적 대표를 중심으로" 2 (2): 71-93, 2003
• 2 정한울, "한국 정치사회어젠다의 정책 선호 지형: 국민여론과 정치 엘리트의 선택" 동아시아연구원 2011
• 3 지병근 ; 신두철 ; 정하윤, "주요정당의 선거공약에서 나타난 민주적 반응성: 제6회 지방선거사례분석" 한국의정연구회 9 (9): 189-209, 2014
• 4 홍승헌, "여론과 정책 - 민주화 이후 한국정부의 정책응답성" 한국사회조사연구소 8 (8): 9-43, 2007
• 5 신현기, "여론과 대통령의 반응성: 박근혜 대통령의 집권 1년차를 대상으로" 서울행정학회 24 (24): 209-232, 2014
• 6 최광은, "여론-정책 연계 연구의 현황과 과제" 한국정치연구소 31 (31): 61-96, 2022
• 7 현재호, "민주화 이후 정당정치: 정당, 유권자 그리고 정부" 한국정치연구소 20 (20): 81-108, 2011
• 8 김진국, "국회의원의 지역구민 대표성 : 정책적 측면을 중심으로" 6 : 47-101, 1997
• 9 박영환, "경제적 불평등과 정치적 대표: 18대 국회 사례" 현대정치연구소 8 (8): 5-37, 2015
• 10 Brooks, Clem, "Why Welfare States Persist: Public Opinion and the Future of Social Provision" University of Chicago Press 2007
• 11 Beyer, Daniela, "Two Sides of the Same Coin? Congruence and Responsiveness as Representative Democracy’s Currencies" 46 (46): S13-S47, 2018
• 12 Page, Benjamin I., "The Rational Public : Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences" University of Chicago Press 1992
• 13 Wlezien, Christopher, "The Public as Thermostat : Dynamics of Preferences for Spending" 39 (39): 981-1000, 1995
• 14 Wlezien, Christopher, "The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior" Oxford University Press 799-817, 2007
• 15 Erikson, Robert S., "The Macro Polity" Cambridge University Press 2002
• 16 Lax, Jeffrey R., "The Democratic Deficit in the States" 56 (56): 148-166, 2012
• 17 Fording, Richard C, "The Conditional Effect of Violence as a Political Tactic : Mass Insurgency, Welfare Generosity, and Electoral Context in the American States" 41 (41): 1-29, 1997
• 18 Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel, "The Concept of Representation" University of California Press 1967
• 19 Cook, Fay Lomax, "Support for the American Welfare State:The Views of Congress and the Public" Columbia University Press 1992
• 20 Erikson, Robert S., "Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States" Cambridge University Press 1993
• 21 Herbst, Susan, "Reading Public Opinion: How Political Actors View the Democratic Process" University of Chicago Press 1998
• 22 Stimson, James A., "Public Opinion in America : Moods, Cycles, and Swings" Westview Press 1991
• 23 Monroe, Alan D, "Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1980–1993" 62 (62): 6-28, 1998
• 24 Wlezien, Christopher, "Public Opinion and Policy Representation : On Conceptualization, Measurement, and Interpretation" 45 (45): 561-582, 2017
• 25 Key, Valdimer Orlando, Jr., "Public Opinion and American Democracy" Knopf 1961
• 26 Rose, Richard, "Problems of Party Government" Macmillan 1974
• 27 Cohen, Jeffrey E., "Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-Making" University of Michigan Press 1999
• 28 Gilens, Martin, "Preference Gaps and Inequality in Representation" 42 (42): 335-341, 2009
• 29 Dahl, Robert A., "Polyarchy : Participation and Opposition" Yale University Press 1971
• 30 Jacobs, Lawrence R., "Politicians Don’t Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness" University of Chicago Press 2000
• 31 Erikson, Robert S., "Political Parties, Public Opinion, and State Policy in the United States" 83 (83): 729-750, 1989
• 32 Wlezien, Christopher, "Patterns of Representation : Dynamics of Public Preferences and Policy" 66 (66): 1-24, 2004
• 33 Verba, Sidney, "Participation in America : Political Democracy and Social Equality" Harper & Row 1972
• 34 Erikson, Robert S., "Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy" Oxford University Press 33-53, 2002
• 35 Manza, Jeff, "Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy" Oxford University Press 17-32, 2002
• 36 엄기홍 ; 박영환, "Models of Political Representation in South Korea: Empirical Analyses for the 17th and 18th National Assemblies" 한국학술연구원 47 (47): 597-620, 2016
• 37 Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, "Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments in Eastern Europe, European Union and OECD 1990–2003" Oxford University Press 2003
• 38 Baumgartner, Frank R., "Lobbying and Policy Change: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why" University of Chicago Press 2009
• 39 Gerring, John, "Is There a (Viable) Crucial-Case Method?" 40 (40): 231-253, 2007
• 40 Converse, Philip E., "Ideology and Discontent" Free Press 206-264, 1964
• 41 Burstein, Paul, "Handbook of Politics: State and Society in Global Perspective" Springer 63-79, 2010
• 42 Eckstein, Harry., "Handbook of Political Science, Volume 7: Strategies of Inquiry" Addison-Wesley 79-138, 1975
• 43 Geer, John G., "From Tea Leaves to Opinion Polls: A Theory of Democratic Leadership" Columbia University Press 1996
• 44 Canes-Wrone, Brandice, "From Mass Preferences to Policy" 8 : 147-165, 2015
• 45 Page, Benjamin I., "Effects of Public Opinion on Policy" 77 (77): 175-190, 1983
• 46 Stimson, James A., "Dynamic Representation" 89 (89): 543-565, 1995
• 47 Burstein, Paul, "Discrimination, Jobs, and Politics: The Struggle for Equal Employment Opportunity in the U.S. since the New Deal" University of Chicago Press 1998
• 48 Soroka, Stuart N., "Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy" Cambridge University Press 2010
• 49 Miller, Warren E., "Constituency Influence in Congress" 57 (57): 45-56, 1963
• 50 Monroe, Alan D, "Consistency between Public Preferences and National Policy Decisions" 7 (7): 3-19, 1979
• 51 Huber, John D., "Congruence Between Citizens and Policymakers in Two Visions of Liberal Democracy" 46 (46): 291-326, 1994
• 52 Althaus, Scott L., "Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics : Opinion Surveys and the Will of the People" Cambridge University Press 2003
• 53 Downs, Anthony, "An Economic Theory of Democracy" Harper &Row 1957
• 54 Soroka, Stuart N., "Agenda-Setting Dynamics in Canada" UBC Press 2002
• 55 Manza, Jeff, "A Democratic Polity? Three Views of Policy Responsiveness to Public Opinion in the United States" 30 (30): 630-667, 2002