Granger Causality 검정과 공적분 검정을 통한 OECD 국가 재생에너지정책 효과 분석 = Analysis of Renewable Energy Policy Effects in OECD Countries Using Granger Causality and Cointegration Test

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 세계 각국은 기후변화 대응을 위한 온실가스 감축과 더불어 미래 신성장 동력 확보의 일환으로 재생에너지 개발과 보급 확대를 위한 정책적 노력을 집중하고 있으며, 이에 따라 동 정책들의 효과성을 분석하기 위한 많은 학문적 연구가 진행되었다. 다만, 기존의 많은 연구들은 패널자료를 활용한 계량적 분석에서 정책들 간 상호작용효과와 정책의 의존성 문제에 대한 논의 그리고 정책들의 장ㆍ단기적 효과에 대한 분석이 다소 부족하였다. 이에 본 연구는 OECD 25개국에서 시행 중인 정책수단을 핵심변수로 활용하되 유사한 정책들의 통합변수 구성 등을 통해 보다 효과적인 정책 분석을 시도하였고 동시에 각 국가에서 도입되고 있는 정책의 성과 등을 파악하였다. 분석 결과 첫째, 조세정책은 단기적으로는 재생에너지 발전과 확대에 강력하게 기여하고 있으나 장기적으로는 효과가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 발전차액지원제도 등 가격기반 정책과 투자ㆍ보조금정책은 단기적으로는 그 효과가 미미하나 장기적으로는 매우 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 공급의무할당제도 등 수량기반 정책은 재생에너지 발전과 보급 확대에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 연구 결과는 실증적 분석과 더불어 각국에서 운영하고 있는 정책의 경험적 분석을 토대로 정책의 효과성을 제시한 것으로 이론적 가치를 지니며, 보다 실효적인 정책 방향을 제시하는 데 기여할 수 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In recent times, countries around the world have been concentrating their policy resources on the development and wider deployment of renewable energy as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address climate change and to secure new growth engines for the future. Accordingly, a number of studies have been conducted thus far to analyze the effectiveness of related policies. However, existing studies leave much room for improvement as they, in many cases, lack analysis on the effects of interactions among different policies, interdependence of those policies and short- and long-term effects of those policies while examining panel data analysis. For this reason, this study aimed at more effective policy analysis by using policy measures being taken by 25 OECD member countries as key variables and by making similar policies as composit policy variables, respectively. At the same time, it also tried to assess the implementation of policies introduced by countries in question. The findings of this study include: First, Tax related policies was found to be a strong contributor to the development and wider use of renewable energy in the short term, but not effective in the long term; Second, price-based policies including Feed in Tariff (FIT) programs as well as investment and subsidy schemes were proved to be not so much effective in the short term, but to have very positive impact in the long term; and Third, it was found that quantity-based policies including Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) did not have meaningful impact on the development and dissemination of renewable energy. The results of this study have demonstrated the effectiveness of policies undertaken by countries around the world through practical and empirical analysis, and it is also expected to provide adequate directions for policy-makers in formulating more effective renewable energy policy.

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