SARS事件對2003年中國經濟影響的分析 = Analysis of the Influence of SARS on China's Economy

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2003년 상반기 중국 지역에서 발생한 SARS 전염병의 창궐은 세계적인 주목을 끌었다. 중국 경제가 이러한 '돌발적인 사건'을 감당할 수 있을지의 여부는 많은 경제학자와 경제기관의 중요한 쟁점으로 떠올랐다. 현재 SARS 전염병은 이미 중국 대륙 내에서 효과적인 통제가 이루어진 상태이고, 최근에는 SARS 기간 동안 중국 경제발전과 관련된 중요한 수치들이 잇달아 발표되었다. 따라서 SARS 사건이 중국경제에 미친 영향에 관한 문제는 객관적인 평가가 이미 가능한 상태이다. 본 연구는 경제수학적 모형을 개발하여 SARS 사건 발생 후 중국 수출입무역, 투자, 소비 세 가지 요인에서의 변화를 집중적으로 분석하기로 한다. 이 세 가지 요인을 분석한 토대 위에서 겨론적으로 SARS 사건이 중국 경제 발전에 끼친 영향이 매우 제한적이라는 것을 밝힌다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The indulging in willful persecution of SARS in the China mainland caught the people’s attention from all over the world. Many institutions and specialists rationally think of whether she could overcome the disaster but some kept pessimistic point during the coming of SARS. Nowadays the epidemic disease has been successfully controlled, and the data related to economic growth of China throughout the duration of SARS are issued. Hence it is possible to estimate the influence of SARS on the economy.
Based on an econometric model, the most part of our interests is poured into the analysis of changes in three months of 2003 related to the three key factors-investment, consumption and trade. The largest loss of SARS was presented at $7 hundred million in May, it was that the added $2.8 billions of investment deducted both the lost $2.5 billion of foreign trade and the lost $1 billion of consumption. In conclusion the total loss given by SARS in 2003 would be between $2 and $4 billion or 0.2-0.4% of GDP growth rate. By the synthetically analysis of alteration of the key factors the conclusion is that the influence of SARS on China's economy is much limited.
Actually the growth rate of GDP in 2003 was 9.1%, higher than 8.5-8.7% of the rate that we figured out. Two points would explain the difference. One is that the newer Chinese government organized in 2003 showed its powerful ambition and ability to keep an endless, stable and radical growth rate by more expansionary financial policies and public investment. Other is that China economy has been in an accelerated industrialization process with higher growth rate. As a huge economic system with further improved and open market China has owned an internal growth power. An emergent incident quickly controlled and kept watch by government and public could not change the trace of Chinese radical economic growth.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 一. 引言
• 二. SARS的中國進出口貿易的影響
• 三. SARS的中國投資和消費的影響
• 四. 進一步的說明
• 五. 結論