중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석 = Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Air Pollution in China

국문 초록 (Abstract)

중국의 급속한 경제성장은 환경에 커다란 부하를 초래하였고, 이를 통해 대기오염 문제도 심각해졌다. 본 연구는 중국의 대기오염 원인을 경험적으로 분석하였다. 표준오차 패널수정 추정기법(PCSE)을 이용하여 중국의 30개 성을 대상으로 아황산가스 및 질소산화물의 배출요인을 분석하였다. 아황산가스의 경우 일인당 실질소득이 증가할수록 배출 수준이 감소하고, 질소산화물은 일인당 실질소득과 역N자형의 관계에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 소득 이외의 배출요인으로 우선 전기소비량은 아황산가스나 질소산화물을 증가시키는 요인이었고, 석탄소비량은 아황산가스 배출을 증가시키는 반면에 천연가스 소비량은 아황산가스 배출을 감소시키는 요인으로 나타났다. 한편 에너지 산업에 대한 투자와 폐가스처리에 대한 투자는 아황산가스 배출을 감소시키는 결정요인이지만 질소산화물 배출에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 디젤 소비량, 트럭 비율 및 차량 수는 질소산화물 배출을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 강수량의 증가도 아황산가스와 질소산화물의 배출을 감소시킨 요인이었다. 끝으로 본 연구의 정책적 시사점과 향후 연구방향을 제시하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The rapid economic growth has brought tremendous pressure on the environment and caused severe air pollution in China. This study empirically examines causes of air pollution in China. Panel-corrected standard errors procedure (PCSE) was used to analyze major determinants of increasing or reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_X) in 30 Chinese provinces. The estimation results show that SO₂ emission is mitigated as per capita regional GDP increases, but the relation between emission of NO_X and per capita regional GDP is found to have an inverse N-shaped curve, which implies that emission of NO_X is ultimately expected to decline with economic growth. As for increasing factors of air pollutants, electricity consumption is a significant common source of SO₂ and NO_X emissions. Moreover, the results show that increment of coal consumption significantly affects emission of SO₂ while increase of natural gas consumption reduce emission of SO₂. On the other side, investment in energy industry, and investment on treatment of waste gases are determinants of mitigating emissions of SO₂, but have no impact on NO_X. Consumption of diesel, truck ratio and number of vehicles increase emission of NO_X. Meanwhile, higher precipitation rate is a common determinant of mitigating emissions of SO₂ and NO_X. Policy implications are suggested in the conclusion.

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