교란변수와 벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 관광주도성장가설의 재검정 = Testing Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Revisited -A Confounder Approach Using VECM-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

With the end of COVID-19, the tourism industry in many countries around the world is facing a special situation again. The case of Laos is no exception. The number of inbound tourists, which was 88,000 in 2020, increased to 3.4 million in 2023, which is a 164% increase from 2022. However, in the case of Laos, public external debt exceeded 70% of GDP, and the possibility of default was discussed due to the rapid devaluation of the Laos currency and annual inflation of more than 25%. Therefore, in this study, Laos' debt variables, inflation, and exchange rate variables were set as confounding variables and the 'Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis' (TLGH) was analyzed for the period from 1995 to 2022 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Tested. In conclusion, first, the tourism-led growth hypothesis was rejected. Second, the debt variable (difference variable delayed for 2 years) was found to increase national income, and the devaluation of the exchange rate played a role in reducing national income. Third, the economy-led growth hypothesis was not rejected in the difference variables delayed for 2 years, but was rejected in the difference variables delayed for 3 years, showing mixed results. Fourth, the debt variable (difference variable delayed for 2 years) played a positive role in the development of the tourism industry, but the difference variable delayed for 3 years appeared to have a negative effect, showing mixed results. Lastly, the devaluation of the exchange rate was found to play a positive role in the tourism industry in the three-year lagged difference variable. In addition, it was found that various forms of cointegration exist between variables in the long run. This study provides policy implications that in underdeveloped countries such as Laos, stabilization of the macroeconomic base such as prices, exchange rates, and external debt issues is an essential condition for tourism-led growth.