Sharing in development : a programme of employment, equity, and growth for the Philippines : report of an inter-agency team financed by the United Nations Development Programme and organised by the International Labour Office

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = Ⅴ
• Resolution 40(s. 74) of the National Economic and Development Authority = XXII
• Introduction = XXIII
• REPORT
• Part Ⅰ. Background and summary
• 1. Postwar realities : narrow participation and unbalanced growth = 3
• Postwar employment and income performance = 4
• Industrial growth : performance and policies = 14
• The rural sector : performance and policies = 17
• Constrained growth = 20
• Summary and conclusions = 22
• 2. Summary and recommendations = 25
• The problem = 25
• The obstacles = 28
• The vision = 33
• The policy package = 35
• Part Ⅱ. A programme of employment, equity and growth
• 3. Mobilisation of the rural sector = 55
• Prominent features of the rural sector and its recent evolution = 56
• An over-all strategy for rural development = 64
• Summary and policy recommendations = 107
• 4. Industrialisation and the expansion of exports = 109
• The role of the industrial sector during import substitution = 109
• Social versus private rates of return = 112
• The need for export expansion = 114
• Liberalisation of imports and the appropriate use of the exchange rate = 117
• The need for additional import substitution and domestic sales = 126
• Inflation and the balance of payments = 126
• A programme for import liberalisation = 128
• Structure, efficiency and growth potential in manufacturing = 139
• Promotion of small-scale and medium-scale industry = 158
• The role of planning and the price system in future industrial promotion = 165
• Summary and policy recommendations = 171
• 5. The organised and unorganised services sector = 177
• Structural characteristics and trends = 180
• Aspects of life in the unorganised services sector = 184
• Relevance of the mission's strategy for the services sector = 186
• Summary and policy recommendations = 188
• 6. Construction and housing = 191
• General characteristics of construction = 191
• Present state of public construction and scope for more labour-intensive techniques = 198
• Present state of housing and future prospects = 211
• Summary and policy recommendations = 222
• 7. Reform of credit and interest rates = 227
• Deceleration of financial development = 228
• Disequilibrium in rates of interest and the market for savings = 230
• The credit market = 235
• Summary and policy recommendations = 241
• 8. Finance and domestic resources mobilisation = 245
• Past structure of revenues and expenditures = 246
• General fiscal implications of the mission's proposals = 251
• Fiscal incentives and factor price distortions = 252
• Specific tax proposals = 257
• Specific expenditure proposals = 268
• Summary and policy recommendations = 276
• 9. The role of foreign capital = 279
• The recent record = 279
• Private foreign investment = 282
• Foreign aid = 293
• Summary and policy recommendations = 299
• 10. Education and human resources = 303
• The present situation = 304
• Investment priorities in formal education = 308
• Special problems = 318
• Non-formal education = 335
• Summary and policy recommendations = 337
• 11. Wage and price policies = 343
• Minimum wages = 344
• Differentiated minimum wage standards = 349
• Money wage movements and general wage policy issues = 353
• Control and stabilisation of prices = 356
• The role of price stabilisation in the mission's strategy = 359
• Summary and policy recommendations = 361
• 12. Sharing in development = 365
• Distributional implications of the mission's major recommendations = 369
• Social consensus as a basis for a strategy of sharing in development = 379
• Summary = 383
• SPECIAL PAPERS
• 1. Population and labour supply = 387
• 2. Restricted growth, rural mobilisation and export diversification = 407
• 3. The changing conditions for agricultural development = 441
• 4. The regional dimension of agricultural development = 453
• 5. Agrarian reform = 473
• 6. Non-agricultural employment in the rural sector = 501
• 7. Rural mobilisation and the barrio = 513
• 8. Mechanisation in agriculture and agricultural processing = 523
• 9. Medium-scale and small-scale industry = 539
• 10. Private and social rates of return in manufacturing = 569
• 11. The cloth and garments industries = 575
• 12. Inflation and growth = 583
• 13. Guidelines for the social evaluation of alternative techniques for public works projects = 589
• 14. Estimating the demand for housing = 603
• 15. Fiscal incentives and factor price distortions = 611
• 16. Projecting enrolments = 623
• 17. Manpower forecasts and cost-benefit analyses = 629
• 18. Labour relations, collective bargaining and protective labour legislation = 651
• 19. Intersectoral linkages and direct and indirect employment effects = 659
• 20. Suggestions for statistical improvements and future research = 679
• TABLES
• 1. Measured rates of unemployment by household status groupings, August 1972 = 6
• 2. Allocation of national accounts income data by type of income, 1961-71 = 8
• 3. Indicators of income distribution : total, rural and urban, 1956, 1961, 1965 and 1971 = 10
• 4. Aggregate trends in sectoral net value added and employment, 1960-71 = 12
• 5. Annual percentage growth of output, area and yield of four major agricultural crops, 1949-59 and 1959-69 = 19
• 6. Output and productivity growth in agriculture and other rural subsectors = 58
• 7. Median family income of farm households, 1961, 1965 and 1971 = 61
• 8. Relative price of value added in agriculture, 1948-71 = 62
• 9. Summary of the inventory of irrigation potential for rice areas = 73
• 10. Rice(paddy) and maize yields in some Asian countries = 76
• 11. Fertiliser use, outlets and price by region = 80
• 12. Land classification = 82
• 13. Marginal propensity to consume out of additional family expenditure, 1971 = 85
• 14. Labour absorption in non-agricultural activities in the Gapan area, Nueva Ecija Province, 1967-71 = 87
• 15. Some indicators of intensity of production and farm size, 1960 = 95
• 16. Comparative economic characteristics of agriculture, by region = 106
• 17. Increases and decreases in rates of import duty resulting from the new tariff code = 114
• 18. Monthly earnings for workers in textile, footwear and clothing factories, 1969 and 1973 = 115
• 19. Exports of garments from the Philippines and other Asian countries, 1960-72 = 119
• 20. Central Bank classification of imports, July 1973 = 130
• 21. Composition of imports by Central Bank categories, 1960-72 = 130
• 22. Growth of manufacturing firms : employment and value added, 1956-62 and 1962-68 = 141
• 23. Shares in employment and value added in manufacturing by size of firm, 1969-71 = 142
• 24. Rates of employment growth in manufacturing by size of firm, 1960-71 = 143
• 25. Capital intensity and labour productivity in organised manufacturing by employment size, 1970 = 144
• 26. Capital per worker, capital productivity and labour productivity in manufacturing by industry and employment size, 1970 = 145
• 27. Capital intensity and labour productivity in selected industries, 1969 = 147
• 28. New manufactured exports by commodity group, 1962, 1965, 1969 and 1972 = 149
• 29. Persons employed in commerce and domestic and personal services by sector and class of worker, August 1971 = 178
• 30. Employment in the organised and unorganised services sector, 1961, 1967 and 1971 = 179
• 31. Employment distribution by organised and unorganised subsector, 1961, 1967 and 1971 = 181
• 32. Annual growth rates of services sector employment, 1961-67, 1967-71 and 1961-71 = 182
• 33. Ratio of self-employed workers and of family workers to wage and salary earners, 1961, 1967 and 1971 = 185
• 34. Importance of the construction sector in net domestic product, capital formation and employment, 1960-72 = 193
• 35. Urban-rural breakdown of male construction workers, 1965-68 and 1971 = 194
• 36. Distribution of government expenditures on infrastructure by major categories and regions(pesos) = 195
• 37. Distribution of government expenditures on infrastructure by major categories and regions(percentages) = 196
• 38. Estimated comparative costs of construction per km, Capas-Botolan road and average gravel road = 207
• 39. Estimated comparative costs per 1,000 ㎡ of concrete slab, labour-intensive and capital-intensive methods = 207
• 40. Estimated potential generation of employment, 1974-77 road construction programme = 209
• 41. Estimated cost and potential generation of employment, concrete paving of roads, 1974-77 = 210
• 42. Number of dwelling units, 1956, 1960 and 1970 = 212
• 43. Percentage distribution of dwelling units, 1956, 1960 and 1970 = 213
• 44. Changes in number of dwellings and growth rates, 1956-60 and 1960-70 = 213
• 45. Estimated direct and indirect employment effects of housing projections, 1977 = 220
• 46. Comparison of labour content in conventional residential construction and prefabricated housing = 221
• 47. The Philippine financial system = 229
• 48. Gross investment and savings ratios, 1950-72 = 230
• 49. Average nominal interest rates on credits granted by commercial banks and savings banks, 1960-72 = 232
• 50. Average size of deposits, selected banks, 1960-72 = 233
• 51. Loans granted by commercial, savings and rural banks, 1958, 1961, 1965 and 1967 = 236
• 52. Loans granted by the Development Bank of the Philippines, 1947-67, 1967, 1970 and 1972 = 236
• 53. Distribution of private sector credits outstanding, by industry and institution, 1960-71 = 237
• 54. National and local government revenue and expenditure, fiscal years 1968-72 = 247
• 55. Percentage composition of national and local government tax structure, fiscal years 1964, 1968 and 1972 = 248
• 56. Current expenditure of the national Government, fiscal years 1964-72(millions of current pesos) = 248
• 57. Current expenditure of the national Government, fiscal years 1964-72(percentage distribution) = 249
• 58. Consolidated fiscal operations of the national Government, fiscal years 1967-72 = 250
• 59. Export price indices, May 1973 = 260
• 60. Capital inflows, 1966-72 = 280
• 61. Distribution of foreign direct investment by type of industry, 1970 = 283
• 62. Equity distribution by country of investor, 1964 and 1965 = 284
• 63. Unemployment rates by years of schooling completed, 1961, 1965 and 1968 = 309
• 64. Utilisation rates by level of schooling, 1965 actual ; 1969 and 1974 projected = 310
• 65. Rates of growth of total employment and educated employment(high school and college graduates), between May 1961 and October 1965 = 312
• 66. Private and social rates of return to levels of schooling, 1971 = 315
• 67. Percentage distribution of students in public and private institutions by combined incomes of parents, 1971 = 328
• 68. Selected indicators of money wage levels, 1971 = 348
• 69. Regional income levels, 1971 = 378
• 70. Population, labour force, employment and unemployment, 1957-72(May series, as adjusted by the mission) = 392
• 71. Population, labour force, employment and unemployment, 1956-71(October series, as adjusted by the mission) = 393
• 72. Employment by industry, 1956-72(May series, as adjusted by the mission) = 394
• 73. Employment by industry, 1956-71(October series, as adjusted by the mission) = 395
• 74. Estimated net emigration(1970-85) and population(1970-80) = 399
• 75. Labour force projection by age and sex, 1970-80 = 401
• 76. Changes in urban component of gross domestic product, and in capacity to import and terms of trade, 1951-72 = 430
• 77. Total and agricultural employment, May and October 1956-72 = 433
• 78. Employment and value added in agriculture and manufacturing, and gross national product, 1950-72 = 434
• 79. Imports, exports and gross national product, 1950-72 = 435
• 80. Imports, f.o.b., total and consumer goods, 1950-72 = 436
• 81. Food supply, prices and domestic terms of trade, 1950-72 = 437
• 82. Value added and price indices, rural and urban sectors, 1950-72 = 438
• 83. Calculation of domestic terms of trade($$\lambda $$ and $$\lambda '$$), 1950-72 = 439
• 84. Calculation of import availability(g and g'), 1950-72 = 440
• 85. Selected characteristics of the agricultural sector, 1948-72 = 443
• 86. Relative contribution of area and yield to total growth in output of rice, maize and sugar cane, 1948-69 = 444
• 87. Trends in irrigation cost in production at different levels of rice technology = 446
• 88. Estimates of relative costs of land settlement and irrigation = 448
• 89. Costs and benefits from investment in various stages of irrigation development = 450
• 90. Comparison of irrigation costs between the NIA and communal systems, 1954-71 = 450
• 91. Some indicators of growth and economic relations in agriculture, 1950-72 = 454
• 92. Classification of the area of the Philippines in terms of agricultural uses, by region, 1973 = 457
• 93. Irrigated area in 1972 = 459
• 94. Potential for irrigation estimated by the National Irrigation Administration in rice-growing areas = 460
• 95. Comparative economic characteristics of agriculture, by region = 462
• 96. Ratio of net internal migration to population, by region, 1969-70 = 465
• 97. Percentage of area under individual crops, by region, to the total national area under that crop, 1969-71 = 468
• 98. Percentage contribution of individual regions to total national production of individual commodities, 1969-71 = 469
• 99. Indices of relative yield of agricultural commodities per hectare by region, 1969-71 = 470
• 100. Regional distribution of meat production, 1969 = 472
• 101. Reported distribution of rice and maize tenant farms, by tenant status, around 1970-72 = 474
• 102. Ratio of net income of owner-operators to that of tenants, Nueva Ecija Province and Central Luzon Region as a whole, 1963-70 = 475
• 103. Distribution of landowners and of area of tenanted landholdings sown to rice and maize, by size of holding, in nine pilot municipalities, 1973 = 480
• 104. Farmer borrowers by source of loan and by tenure = 483
• 105. Mean palay yields by crop semester, presence or absence of irrigation, variety of palay planted and tenure group, in Nueva Ecija Province and in the Central Luzon Region as a whole = 485
• 106. Mean value of production expenses per hectare in crop year 1972-73 wet season, by expense and tenure group, Nueva Ecija palay farms = 487
• 107. Mean value of expenditure on fertilisers and other farm chemicals, by tenure group, Nueva Eeija palay farms, 1969 and 1970 = 488
• 108. Mean ratio of area treated with fertilisers and other farm chemicals to area harvested, by tenure group, Nueva Ecija palay farms, 1969 and 1970 = 488
• 109. Average number of weeks a farm operator and his household worked on their own farm, by worker category and tenure group, Nueva Ecija palay farms, crop year 1971-72 = 489
• 110. Labour provided by non-household workers on palay farms, by tenure group, Nueva Ecija, crop year 1971-72 = 489
• 111. Estimated potential income gains to tenants from Presidential Decree No. 27, with and without compensation to landowners = 490
• 112. Income distribution by quintile with or without redistribution of land as planned under Operation Land Transfer = 497
• 113. Ratios of the present value of an amortising owner's income stream, under Presidential Decree No. 27, to the present value of a non-land-reform tenant's income stream, by tenure, for various tenant rates of time preference = 499
• 114. Ratios of the present value of an ex-landowner's income stream, under Presidential Decree No. 27, to the present value of a non-land-reform landowner's income stream, by tenure of the landowner's tenants, for various rates of landowner's time preference = 500
• 115. Total, urban and rural employment by major industry group, 1970 = 502
• 116. Percentage distribution of employed persons by sex and major industry group, May 1965-72 = 503
• 117. Percentage distribution of families, rural and urban, by main source of income, 1961-71 = 504
• 118. Percentage of families, rural and urban, in receipt of income from specified sources, 1961-71 = 505
• 119. Percentage of families in receipt of income from specified sources, by region, 1965 and 1971 = 506
• 120. Percentage distribution of total family expenditure, rural and urban, 1961-71 = 511
• 121. Local infrastructure projects, 1971-72 = 517
• 122. Completed grants-in-aid projects of the Presidential Arm on Community Development, 1971-72 = 518
• 123. Annual sales of power units and number of mechanisation loans granted under the credit schemes launched by the Central Bank with World Bank funds, 1961-73 = 525
• 124. Changes in total and hired labour use patterns in the wet season, 1966 and 1970, in selected areas with high rates of mechanisation = 527
• 125. Mechanisation and labour input on farms in the Central Luzon Region and in Laguna Province, 1966-67 and 1970-71 crop years = 528
• 126. Capital, labour and foreign exchange requirements for different land preparation techniques = 529
• 127. Estimated investment and operational costs for different rice milling methods = 536
• 128. Labour employed, value added and fixed assets in organised manufacturing, by size of establishment in terms of number of workers employed, 1970 = 539
• 129. Output capital ratios by size of firm, selected countries, 1956-65 = 540
• 130. Value added and fixed capital in Philippine and Indian industry, 1970 and 1965 = 541
• 131. Quantitative results of Greater Manila survey of small industry, 1972 = 545
• 132. Values of operating ratios for specified small-scale industries in 1972 and for all manufacturing in 1970, in 1972 prices = 546
• 133. Replacement value of capital, profits and profit rates before and after taxes among specified small-scale industries, 1972 = 547
• 134. Manufacturing employment by size of establishment and by type of worker = 563
• 135. Capitalisation and employment in principal household industries registered with the National Cottage Industry Development Authority, December 1972 = 566
• 136. Regional distribution of enterprises registered with the National Cottage Industry Development Authority, December 1972 = 567
• 137. Ratios of value added, payrolls, and gross profits and overheads and fixed capital in manufacturing, 1956-71 = 570
• 138. Net returns to equity capital in manufacturing, 1956-71 = 571
• 139. Typical manufacturing process in 1969 = 572
• 140. Annual rates of increase of Gross National Product, money supply and consumer prices, 1950-72 = 585
• 141. Market costs of alternative road-building techniques = 598
• 142. Accounting ratios for commodities = 599
• 143. Social costs of alternative road-building techniques = 602
• 144. Average family expenditure by expenditure group, by income class, 1971 = 605
• 145. Housing expenditure as percentage of total expenditure, by income class, 1971 = 605
• 146. Number of households, selected years between 1956 and 1971 = 606
• 147. Projections of investment in construction of dwellings under various growth assumptions, 1972-80 = 610
• 148. Board of Investments benefits by industry, 1972 = 615
• 149. Capital intensity, capital productivity and Board of Investments benefits by size of firm, for Investment Priorities Plan(non-export-oriented) firms, 1972 = 617
• 150. Capital intensity, capital productivity and Board of Investments benefits by size of firm(export-oriented firms), 1972 = 617
• 151. Fixed capital per worker, capital productivity and labour productivity : comparison between large manufacturing(1969) and Board of Investments projects in the Sixth Investment Priorities Plan, at 1972 prices = 619
• 152. Corresponding industries in the Annual survey of manufactures, 1969 = 621
• 153. Actual and projected enrolments by level of education, 1955-86 = 624
• 154. Private and social rates of return to public and private education in Imus, Cavite, 1966 = 632
• 155. Private and social costs of education per student, 1971 = 633
• 156. Rates of return to different levels of schooling, 1971 = 635
• 157. Absorption rate in all fields and own field of specialisation by time elapsed since graduation and average monthly earnings per institution, 1969 = 636
• 158. Range of absorption rates and monthly earnings in 1969 by field of specialisation and year of graduation ; and range of tuition fees in 1968 = 640
• 159. Absorption rates and average monthly earnings in 1969 of University of the Philippines graduates by field of specialisation and by year of graduation ; and school fees and departmental cost in 1968-69 = 641
• 160. Yearly school fees in private schools in 1968 and mean yearly earnings in 1969-70 of 1963-64 college graduates by field of specialisation = 642
• 161. Range of private rates of return by institution for fields of specialisation, 1969 = 643
• 162. Private and social rates of return at the University of the Philippines, 1969 = 643
• 163. Percentage distribution of graduates by completion of first degree and by first job, 1970 = 645
• 164. Absorption rate of graduates of vocational high schools and technical institutes = 646
• 165. Absorption rates of 1969-70 National Manpower and Youth Council trainees, c. 1971 = 647
• 166. Cost per student by type of vocational school, 1965 and 1969 = 647
• 167. Distribution of out-of-school youth by employment status and vocational skill, by region, 1970 = 648
• 168. Distribution of out-of-school youth by employment status and by level and type of schooling, by region, 1970 = 650
• 169. Classification of 33 sectors : modern, traditional and mixed = 660
• 170. Measure of backward linkages-gross output effects of a unit change in sectoral final demand(33-sector breakdown) = 661
• 171. Sectoral employment／output ratios and direct and indirect employment effects of an increase of 1 million pesos in sectoral final demand(33-sector breakdown) = 664
• 172. Correspondence between 13-sector and 33-sector classifications = 666
• 173. Measure of backward linkages-gross output effects of a unit change in sectoral final demand(13-sector breakdown) = 667
• 174. Sectoral employment／output ratios and direct and indirect employment effects of an increase of 1 million pesos in sectoral final demand(13-sector breakdown) = 667
• 175. Correspondence between 33-sector breakdown and classification used by the 1965 input-output table of the National Economic Council = 668
• 176. A-matrix : input-output table of the Philippines(33 sectors), 1965 = 674
• FIGURES
• 1. Rates of return to investment = 111
• 2. Value added and employment in construction = 192
• 3. Number of man-days of work generated per 1,000 pesos of expenditure = 199
• 4. Annual investment／expenditure on infrastructure = 200
• 5. Estimated man-days in the planned infrastructure programme = 201
• 6. Money market interest rates, monthly averages, July 1971-December 1972 = 234
• 7. Annual family income by age and education, 1971 = 314
• 8. Money and real wage rates of unskilled labourers in industrial establishments in Manila and suburbs = 354
• 9. Factors in agricultural development, 1902-70 = 409
• 10. Agricultural employment as a percentage of total employment, 1956-72 = 411
• 11. Value added in agriculture and in the urban sector, 1950-72, at 1967 prices = 412
• 12. Indices of labour productivity in manufacturing and agriculture, 1950-72 = 413
• 13. Trade ratio(ratios of imports and exports to gross national product), 1950-72 = 414
• 14. Imports of consumer goods in relation to total imports, 1950-72 = 415
• 15. Annual growth rate of gross national product, and of urban and rural value added, at 1967 prices, 1950-71 = 416
• 16. Real wage rates of common labourers in industrial establishments in Manila and suburbs, 1951-72 = 417
• 17. Food supply and domestic terms of trade, 1950-72 = 419
• 18. Terms of trade for Philippine industrial products, 1950-72 = 424
• 19. Exports, official exchange rate and international terms of trade, 1950-72 = 425
• 20. Imports as a fraction of exports and of urban gross domestic product, 1950-72 = 426
• 21. Relation between exports and terms of trade, 1950-72 = 427
• 22. Labour supply and demand and real wages with a growing labour force of rural and urban origin = 432
• 23. Cost of increasing agricultural output by opening up new land and by constructing irrigation works = 445
• 24. Implementation of Operation Land Transfer in 1973 = 479
• 25. Annual sales of power units and number of mechanisation loans granted under the credit schemes launched by the Central Bank with World Bank funds, 1966-73 = 524
• 26. Capital and labour cost of different technologies for paddy land preparation = 530
• 27. Housing expenditure as a function of family income, 1971 = 604
• 28. Projected number of households, 1975 and 1980 = 607
• 29. Actual and projected enrolments by level of education, 1955-86 = 625
• MAP
• Administrative map of the Philippines = 686